Further weakness as Headlam Group (LON:HEAD) drops 10% this week, taking three-year losses to 74%
It's not possible to invest over long periods without making some bad investments. But you want to avoid the really big losses like the plague. So take a moment to sympathize with the long term shareholders of Headlam Group plc (LON:HEAD), who have seen the share price tank a massive 77% over a three year period. That'd be enough to cause even the strongest minds some disquiet. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 58% in a year. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 35% in the last 90 days. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.
If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Headlam Group isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.
Headlam Group isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
Over the last three years, Headlam Group's revenue dropped 5.4% per year. That's not what investors generally want to see. Having said that the 21% annualized share price decline highlights the risk of investing in unprofitable companies. We're generally averse to companies with declining revenues, but we're not alone in that. There's no more than a snowball's chance in hell that share price will head back to its old highs, in the short term.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
Take a more thorough look at Headlam Group's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there's a difference between Headlam Group's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Headlam Group's TSR, which was a 74% drop over the last 3 years, was not as bad as the share price return.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 14% in the last year, Headlam Group shareholders lost 58%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 11% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Headlam Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Headlam Group , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.