Headlam Group plc

LSE:HEAD Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£111.9m

Headlam Group Valuation

Is HEAD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HEAD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HEAD (£1.4) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£0.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HEAD is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HEAD?

Key metric: As HEAD is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for HEAD. This is calculated by dividing HEAD's market cap by their current revenue.
What is HEAD's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.2x
SalesUK£617.20m
Market CapUK£111.94m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does HEAD's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for HEAD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.5x
ULTP Ultimate Products
0.6x6.9%UK£99.5m
SNWS Smiths News
0.1x-5.0%UK£154.8m
SUP Supreme
0.9x-0.1%UK£197.1m
LIKE Likewise Group
0.3x7.5%UK£40.2m
HEAD Headlam Group
0.2x1.8%UK£111.9m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: HEAD is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the peer average (0.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does HEAD's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Retail Distributors Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HEAD 0.2xIndustry Avg. 0.3xNo. of Companies10PS00.40.81.21.62+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: HEAD is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the European Retail Distributors industry average (0.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HEAD's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HEAD PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.2x
Fair PS Ratio0.2x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: HEAD is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HEAD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£1.40
UK£3.40
+143.7%
55.9%UK£5.30UK£1.50n/a2
Dec ’25UK£1.33
UK£3.40
+156.6%
55.9%UK£5.30UK£1.50n/a2
Nov ’25UK£1.29
UK£3.40
+163.6%
55.9%UK£5.30UK£1.50n/a2
Oct ’25UK£1.36
UK£3.40
+150.0%
55.9%UK£5.30UK£1.50n/a2
Sep ’25UK£1.47
UK£3.40
+131.3%
55.9%UK£5.30UK£1.50n/a2
Aug ’25UK£1.49
UK£3.40
+128.2%
55.9%UK£5.30UK£1.50n/a2
Jul ’25UK£1.36
UK£3.40
+150.0%
55.9%UK£5.30UK£1.50n/a2
Jun ’25UK£1.57
UK£3.40
+116.6%
55.9%UK£5.30UK£1.50n/a2
May ’25UK£1.80
UK£3.78
+110.3%
40.4%UK£5.30UK£2.25n/a2
Apr ’25UK£1.76
UK£3.78
+114.5%
40.4%UK£5.30UK£2.25n/a2
Mar ’25UK£2.01
UK£3.90
+94.0%
35.9%UK£5.30UK£2.50n/a2
Feb ’25UK£2.06
UK£3.90
+89.3%
35.9%UK£5.30UK£2.50n/a2
Jan ’25UK£2.16
UK£3.90
+80.6%
35.9%UK£5.30UK£2.50n/a2
Dec ’24UK£1.93
UK£3.90
+102.6%
35.9%UK£5.30UK£2.50UK£1.332
Nov ’24UK£1.76
UK£3.90
+121.6%
35.9%UK£5.30UK£2.50UK£1.292
Oct ’24UK£2.25
UK£3.90
+73.3%
35.9%UK£5.30UK£2.50UK£1.362
Sep ’24UK£2.17
UK£3.90
+79.7%
35.9%UK£5.30UK£2.50UK£1.472
Aug ’24UK£2.23
UK£3.90
+74.9%
35.9%UK£5.30UK£2.50UK£1.492
Jul ’24UK£2.49
UK£4.40
+76.7%
20.5%UK£5.30UK£3.50UK£1.362
Jun ’24UK£2.48
UK£4.40
+77.4%
20.5%UK£5.30UK£3.50UK£1.572
May ’24UK£2.92
UK£4.65
+59.2%
14.0%UK£5.30UK£4.00UK£1.802
Apr ’24UK£3.04
UK£4.65
+53.0%
14.0%UK£5.30UK£4.00UK£1.762
Mar ’24UK£3.30
UK£4.65
+40.9%
14.0%UK£5.30UK£4.00UK£2.012
Feb ’24UK£3.37
UK£4.65
+38.0%
14.0%UK£5.30UK£4.00UK£2.062
Jan ’24UK£3.02
UK£4.65
+54.0%
14.0%UK£5.30UK£4.00UK£2.162
Dec ’23UK£3.09
UK£4.65
+50.5%
14.0%UK£5.30UK£4.00UK£1.932

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 12:13
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Headlam Group plc is covered by 6 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
William HutchingsGoldman Sachs
Michael DonnellyInvestec Bank plc (UK)
Adrian KearseyPanmure Liberum