Gear4music (Holdings) plc (LON:G4M), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw significant share price movement during recent months on the AIM, rising to highs of UK£7.00 and falling to the lows of UK£2.60. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Gear4music (Holdings)'s current trading price of UK£2.60 reflective of the actual value of the small-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Gear4music (Holdings)’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
What is Gear4music (Holdings) worth?
The share price seems sensible at the moment according to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 6.22x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 10.05x, which means if you buy Gear4music (Holdings) today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe Gear4music (Holdings) should be trading in this range, then there isn’t much room for the share price to grow beyond the levels of other industry peers over the long-term. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Gear4music (Holdings)’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
What does the future of Gear4music (Holdings) look like?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Though in the case of Gear4music (Holdings), it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? G4M seems priced close to industry peers right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on G4M, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on G4M for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. This means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on G4M should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio.
So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Gear4music (Holdings) (1 doesn't sit too well with us) you should be familiar with.
If you are no longer interested in Gear4music (Holdings), you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.