Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Ascential plc's (LON:ASCL) Full-Year Report

Shareholders might have noticed that Ascential plc (LON:ASCL) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.0% to UK£2.41 in the past week. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 182% toUK£0.22 per share. Revenues of UK£524m did beat expectations by 2.5%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Ascential

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Ascential's seven analysts is for revenues of UK£563.3m in 2023, which would reflect a satisfactory 7.4% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Ascential is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of UK£0.024 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£567.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.045 in 2023. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

The consensus price target held steady at UK£3.14, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Ascential analyst has a price target of UK£4.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£2.40. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Ascential's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 7.4% annualised growth to the end of 2023 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.9% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.8% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Ascential to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Ascential analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Ascential , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.