Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 09
CEO & Executive Director recently sold UK£315k worth of stock On the 3rd of September, Philip Thomas sold around 55k shares on-market at roughly UK£5.69 per share. This transaction amounted to 18% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Philip's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. New Risk • Aug 01
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 17% Last year net profit margin: 131% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (15% average weekly change). Minor Risk Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (17% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Jul 31
First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: UK£0.15 (vs UK£0.064 loss in 1H 2023) First half 2024 results: EPS: UK£0.15 (up from UK£0.064 loss in 1H 2023). Revenue: UK£157.8m (down 49% from 1H 2023). Net income: UK£58.8m (up UK£75.3m from 1H 2023). Profit margin: 37% (up from net loss in 1H 2023). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.4% growth forecast for the Media industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 72% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Jul 25
Price target increased by 38% to UK£5.36 Up from UK£3.88, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of UK£5.62. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£1.71 for next year compared to UK£0.016 last year. Announcement • Jul 25
Informa plc (LSE:INF) made a conditional proposal to acquire Ascential plc (LSE:ASCL) for £1.15 billion. Informa plc (LSE:INF) made a conditional proposal to acquire Ascential plc (LSE:ASCL) for £1.15 billion on July 23, 2024. A cash consideration valued at £5.68 per share will be paid by Informa plc. As on July 24, 2024, The boards of Informa and Ascential are pleased to announce that they have reached agreement on the terms of a recommended cash offer for the entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital of Ascential. The Offer values the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Ascential at approximately £1.2 billion on a fully diluted basis. In addition, Informa and Ascential have agreed that if the Hudson Disposal completes prior to the date of the Sanction Hearing, Net Sale Proceeds will (subject to the approval of the Ascential Board) be returned to Ascential Shareholders by way of a cash dividend and Ascential Shareholders will be entitled to keep that dividend without any reduction of the Cash Consideration payable under the Offer. Accordingly, the Ascential Directors intend to unanimously recommend that Ascential Shareholders vote (or procure votes) in favour of the Scheme at the Court Meeting and to vote (or procure votes) in favour of the Ascential Resolution(s) at the General Meeting as the Ascential Directors who (or whose immediate family) beneficially hold Ascential Shares have irrevocably undertaken to do (or procure to be done), in respect of 602,718 Ascential Shares in total, representing in aggregate approximately 0.3 per cent. of the ordinary share capital of Ascential in issue as at the Latest Practicable Date. A resolution to approve the Scheme is passed by a majority in number of the Scheme Shareholders present and voting (and entitled to vote) at the Court Meeting, either in person or by proxy, representing at least 75 per cent. in value of the Scheme Shares voted by those Scheme Shareholders. The Cash Consideration payable by Informa pursuant to the Offer will be funded by a dedicated Offer finance facility of up to £1.25 billion provided by Morgan Stanley Bank, N.A. pursuant to the terms of the Facility Agreement. The Cash Consideration payable under the terms of the Offer will be despatched to Ascential Shareholders within 14 days of the Effective Date. The Scheme will also be subject to the applicable requirements of the Takeover Code, the Panel, the London Stock Exchange, the Financial Conduct Authority and the Listing Rules. It is intended that the Offer will be implemented by way of a Court sanctioned scheme of arrangement under Part 26 of the Companies Act.
BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs International and Slaughter and May is acting as advisers to Ascential. BofA Securities, Inc. acted as financial advisor and corporate broker to Ascential plc. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) acted as financial advisor to Informa plc. Clifford Chance LLP is acting as legal adviser to Informa. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 24
Now 44% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 6.3% to UK£5.62. The fair value is estimated to be UK£3.91, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 15% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.0% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 67% per annum over the same time period. Price Target Changed • Jul 12
Price target decreased by 8.2% to UK£3.88 Down from UK£4.22, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 11% above last closing price of UK£3.49. Stock is down 8.2% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£1.71 for next year compared to UK£0.016 last year. Price Target Changed • Jun 25
Price target decreased by 8.0% to UK£4.02 Down from UK£4.37, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 19% above last closing price of UK£3.38. Stock is down 11% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£1.71 for next year compared to UK£0.016 last year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 15
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 35% to UK£3.31. The fair value is estimated to be UK£4.13, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 15% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 4.9% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 64% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • May 22
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 25% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from UK£2.29 to UK£1.72 per share. Revenue forecast steady at UK£215.1m. Net income forecast to shrink 43% next year vs 2.9% growth forecast for Media industry in the United Kingdom . Consensus price target down from UK£5.55 to UK£4.37. Share price fell 39% to UK£3.30 over the past week. Price Target Changed • May 22
Price target increased by 8.1% to UK£3.53 Up from UK£3.26, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 6.8% above last closing price of UK£3.30. Stock is down 18% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£1.71 for next year compared to UK£0.016 last year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 22
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 35% to UK£3.30. The fair value is estimated to be UK£4.13, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 15% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.0% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 67% per annum over the same time period. New Risk • May 21
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of British stocks, typically moving 11% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.1x net interest cover). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (11% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.0% net profit margin). Upcoming Dividend • May 13
Upcoming dividend of UK£1.29 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 20 May 2024. Payment date: 03 June 2024. The company last paid an ordinary dividend in August 2016. The average dividend yield among industry peers is 3.3%. Announcement • May 09
Ascential plc Declares Special Dividend, Payable on 3 June 2024 Ascential plc declared a Special Dividend of 128.6 pence per Existing Ascential Share amounting to a total of approximately £450 million. The Special Dividend is expected to be paid on 3 June 2024 to Shareholders on the Register on 17 May 2024, with the Ascential Shares being marked ex dividend on 20 May 2024. New Risk • Apr 11
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 2.0% Last year net profit margin: 14% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.1x net interest cover). Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.0% net profit margin). Announcement • Apr 04
Ascential plc, Annual General Meeting, May 09, 2024 Ascential plc, Annual General Meeting, May 09, 2024. New Risk • Mar 24
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 28% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.1x net interest cover). Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (UK£2.4m sold). Reported Earnings • Mar 21
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: UK£0.01 (up from UK£0.22 loss in FY 2022). Revenue: UK£206.4m (down 61% from FY 2022). Net income: UK£4.20m (up UK£99.7m from FY 2022). Profit margin: 2.0% (up from net loss in FY 2022). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 48% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 3.2% growth forecast for the Media industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 40% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Mar 16
Ascential plc to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Mar 21, 2024 Ascential plc announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Mar 21, 2024 Announcement • Feb 01
Ascential plc Announces Company Secretary Change Ascential plc announces that Louise Meads, Group Company Secretary since February 2017, is to step down and be succeeded with effect from 1 February 2024 by Naomi Howden, who is currently Deputy Company Secretary. The board would like to thank Louise for her excellent service and contribution through a period of significant change in the business and wish her well for the future. Board Change • Feb 01
Insufficient new directors There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 2 experienced directors. 4 highly experienced directors. CEO & Executive Director Phil Thomas was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2024. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Recent Insider Transactions • Jan 07
CFO & Director recently sold UK£2.4m worth of stock On the 4th of January, Amanda Gradden sold around 850k shares on-market at roughly UK£2.88 per share. This transaction amounted to 67% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Amanda's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Nov 29
CEO & Director recently sold UK£840k worth of stock On the 24th of November, Duncan Painter sold around 300k shares on-market at roughly UK£2.80 per share. This transaction amounted to 3.8% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Duncan's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Announcement • Oct 31
Ascential Announces the Proposed Sale of Its Digital Commerce Business to Omnicom Group Ascential plc (LSE:ASCL) has announced the proposed sale of its Digital Commerce business to Omnicom Group Inc., (NYSE:OMC) a leading global marketing and corporate communications company. Omnicom Group Inc. has confirmed its participation in the sale process for Hudson. New Risk • Oct 30
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of British stocks, typically moving 8.0% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Sep 24
First half 2023 earnings released: UK£0.037 loss per share (vs UK£0.086 loss in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: UK£0.037 loss per share (improved from UK£0.086 loss in 1H 2022). Revenue: UK£307.4m (up 18% from 1H 2022). Net loss: UK£16.5m (loss narrowed 56% from 1H 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 7.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.8% growth forecast for the Media industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 22% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Sep 08
Ascential plc Announces Resignation of Paul Harrison as Chief Operating Officer, Effective from September 30, 2023 Further to the announcement of Ascential plc in January 2023 that Paul Harrison, Chief Operating Officer, intends to leave the Company in due course, the Company announced that the effective date of this departure is 30 September 2023. Announcement • Aug 13
Ascential plc (LSE:ASCL) acquired Contagious Communications Ltd. Ascential plc (LSE:ASCL) acquired Contagious Communications Ltd. on August 11, 2023. Contagious employs 40 staff, and will continue to be led by Chief Executive Officer Karl Marsden, and Co-Founder and Chief Brand Officer Paul Kemp-Robertson.
Ascential plc (LSE:ASCL) completed the acquisition of Contagious Communications Ltd. on August 11, 2023. Announcement • May 19
Ascential plc Elects Joanne Harris as Director Ascential plc at its AGM held on May 18, 2023, approved to elect Joanne Harris as a Director of the Company. Announcement • May 18
BC Partners Reportedly Eyes bid for Ascential's Consumer Data Arm Ascential PLC's (LSE:ASCL) consumer data business has attracted the interest of a private equity firm advised by the former head of the Daily Mail's parent, Sky News reported on May 16, 2023. Paul Zwillenberg, who stepped down as chief executive of Daily Mail & General Trust last autumn, is working with the buyout firm BC Partners on its interest in WGSN, which is owned by FTSE 250-listed events group Ascential, Sky reported. Zwillenberg is working alongside Elizabeth Deeming, a former executive at Stylus Media Group and News Corp, on the deal. City sources said Ascential had asked for initial offers for WGSN, which supplies data on fashion trends to the industry, this week, the report noted. The business is understood to be valued at more than GBP 700 million, with Apax Partners, another buyout firm, among the rival bidders to BC Partners. Neither Zwillenberg nor Deeming is expected to have an ongoing role in the WGSN business if BC's bid is successful, according to people close to the situation, Sky reported. Shares in Ascential closed 1.7% higher at 241.12 pence in London on May 16, 2023. Breakeven Date Change • Apr 27
Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2024 The 8 analysts covering Ascential previously expected the company to break even in 2023. New consensus forecast suggests losses will reduce by 73% to 2023. The company is expected to make a profit of UK£16.8m in 2024. Average annual earnings growth of 102% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 09
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 50%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast increased from UK£567.8m to UK£581.0m. EPS estimate fell from UK£0.045 to UK£0.023 per share. Net income forecast to grow 73% next year vs 38% growth forecast for Media industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£3.11. Share price was steady at UK£2.39 over the past week. Breakeven Date Change • Apr 05
Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2024 The 7 analysts covering Ascential previously expected the company to break even in 2023. New consensus forecast suggests losses will reduce by 73% to 2023. The company is expected to make a profit of UK£16.8m in 2024. Average annual earnings growth of 104% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Reported Earnings • Mar 31
Full year 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2022 results: UK£0.22 loss per share (further deteriorated from UK£0.093 loss in FY 2021). Revenue: UK£524.4m (up 50% from FY 2021). Net loss: UK£95.5m (loss widened 146% from FY 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 182%. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.6% growth forecast for the Media industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 2% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 8% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 31
Consensus estimates of losses per share improve by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from UK£491.4m to UK£508.6m. EPS estimate increased from -UK£0.06 per share to -UK£0.052 per share. Media industry in the United Kingdom expected to see average net income growth of 3.6% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£3.10. Share price rose 29% to UK£2.69 over the past week. Breakeven Date Change • Jan 30
Forecast to breakeven in 2023 The 9 analysts covering Ascential expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of UK£20.1m in 2023. Average annual earnings growth of 78% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Announcement • Jan 25
Ascential plc Announces Paul Harrison, Currently Chief Operating Officer Intends to Leave the Company Ascential plc announced that Following a transition period of active participation in the execution of the plans, Paul Harrison, currently Chief Operating Officer of Ascential plc, has informed the Board that he intends to accept the offer of a role outside Ascential and leave the Company in due course. The Company is grateful for Paul's seven years in both executive and non-executive capacities and his continued support of the strategic plan for a transition period. Further details will be announced in due course. Further appointments will be announced in due course. Price Target Changed • Jan 18
Price target decreased to UK£3.10 Down from UK£3.37, the current price target is an average from 11 analysts. New target price is 52% above last closing price of UK£2.04. Stock is down 46% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of UK£0.058 next year compared to a net loss per share of UK£0.093 last year. Price Target Changed • Nov 24
Price target decreased to UK£3.32 Down from UK£3.69, the current price target is an average from 11 analysts. New target price is 56% above last closing price of UK£2.13. Stock is down 53% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of UK£0.01 next year compared to a net loss per share of UK£0.093 last year. Price Target Changed • Aug 03
Price target decreased to UK£4.00 Down from UK£4.31, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 71% above last closing price of UK£2.33. Stock is down 44% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of UK£0.011 next year compared to a net loss per share of UK£0.093 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 02
First half 2022 earnings released First half 2022 results: Revenue: (down 100% from 1H 2021). Net income: (up UK£6.90m from 1H 2021). Profit margin: (up from net loss in 1H 2021). Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 12%, compared to a 9.8% growth forecast for the industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 37% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 13% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Reported Earnings • Apr 07
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: UK£0.093 loss per share (up from UK£0.38 loss in FY 2020). Revenue: UK£349.3m (up 52% from FY 2020). Net loss: UK£38.8m (loss narrowed 75% from FY 2020). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 683%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 28%, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 71 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Breakeven Date Change • Mar 16
Forecast breakeven date moved forward to 2022 The 10 analysts covering Ascential previously expected the company to break even in 2023. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of UK£3.00m in 2022. Earnings growth of 100% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Breakeven Date Change • Mar 04
Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2023 The 9 analysts covering Ascential previously expected the company to break even in 2022. New consensus forecast suggests losses will reduce by 61% to 2022. The company is expected to make a profit of UK£35.1m in 2023. Average annual earnings growth of 99% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Reported Earnings • Mar 03
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: UK£0.093 loss per share (up from UK£0.37 loss in FY 2020). Revenue: UK£349.3m (up 33% from FY 2020). Net loss: UK£38.8m (loss narrowed 74% from FY 2020). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 683%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 25%, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 81 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 14
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 78% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2021 has deteriorated. 2021 revenue forecast decreased from UK£365.1m to UK£354.8m. Losses expected to increase from UK£0.07 per share to UK£0.12. Media industry in the United Kingdom expected to see average net income growth of 41% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£4.66. Share price fell 2.6% to UK£3.75 over the past week.