Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Essentra plc (LON:ESNT) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Essentra
What Is Essentra's Net Debt?
As you can see below, Essentra had UK£285.2m of debt at December 2020, down from UK£309.7m a year prior. On the flip side, it has UK£135.8m in cash leading to net debt of about UK£149.4m.
How Healthy Is Essentra's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Essentra had liabilities of UK£206.4m due within 12 months and liabilities of UK£427.7m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had UK£135.8m in cash and UK£150.8m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling UK£347.5m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit isn't so bad because Essentra is worth UK£931.0m, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
While Essentra's low debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.5 suggests only modest use of debt, the fact that EBIT only covered the interest expense by 2.9 times last year does give us pause. So we'd recommend keeping a close eye on the impact financing costs are having on the business. Importantly, Essentra's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 39% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Essentra can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Essentra recorded free cash flow worth 67% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
Essentra's EBIT growth rate was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered cast it in a significantly better light. In particular, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was re-invigorating. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Essentra is taking some risks with its use of debt. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Essentra (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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About LSE:ESNT
Essentra
Manufactures and distributes plastic injection and vinyl dip moulded, and metal components worldwide.
Excellent balance sheet and fair value.