Earnings Miss: Centamin plc Missed EPS By 34% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Centamin plc (LON:CEY) last week reported its latest yearly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$891m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 34% to hit US$0.078 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Centamin

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Centamin from eleven analysts is for revenues of US$942.8m in 2024. If met, it would imply a credible 5.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 57% to US$0.12. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$947.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.15 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at UK£1.36, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Centamin, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at UK£1.51 and the most bearish at UK£1.10 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Centamin's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 5.8% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 6.1% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 1.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that Centamin is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Centamin going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Centamin that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.