Rio Tinto Group

BATS-CHIXE:RIOL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£81.7b

Rio Tinto Group Valuation

Is RIOL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of RIOL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: RIOL (£48.09) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£60.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: RIOL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for RIOL?

Key metric: As RIOL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for RIOL. This is calculated by dividing RIOL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is RIOL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.1x
EarningsUS$10.75b
Market CapUS$103.03b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does RIOL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for RIOL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16x
ANTO Antofagasta
27x18.3%UK£16.4b
KMR Kenmare Resources
4.6x4.3%UK£305.6m
GFM Griffin Mining
15.9x-3.8%UK£269.5m
BHP BHP Group
16.6x5.0%AU$203.2b
RIOL Rio Tinto Group
9.1x0.7%UK£81.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: RIOL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x) compared to the peer average (16x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does RIOL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ENPL En+ Group International
2.2x8.0%US$4.67b
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.8xn/aUS$4.08b
EVR EVRAZ
0.4xn/aUS$1.42b
MTL Metals Exploration
0.9x-60.3%US$120.92m
No. of Companies7PE01020304050+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: RIOL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (9.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is RIOL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

RIOL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.1x
Fair PE Ratio18.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: RIOL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst RIOL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£48.09
UK£60.41
+25.6%
13.4%UK£75.22UK£37.33n/a18
Nov ’25UK£50.31
UK£58.97
+17.2%
13.3%UK£73.66UK£37.11n/a18
Oct ’25UK£52.98
UK£58.54
+10.5%
12.8%UK£72.97UK£37.17n/a19
Sep ’25UK£47.57
UK£59.33
+24.7%
13.7%UK£75.29UK£37.23n/a19
Aug ’25UK£50.07
UK£61.73
+23.3%
12.0%UK£77.59UK£46.31n/a19
Jul ’25UK£52.36
UK£61.83
+18.1%
11.8%UK£77.21UK£45.95n/a19
Jun ’25UK£54.71
UK£60.75
+11.0%
11.2%UK£76.77UK£44.93n/a19
May ’25UK£54.27
UK£61.00
+12.4%
11.7%UK£76.71UK£45.10n/a19
Apr ’25UK£50.19
UK£61.05
+21.6%
12.0%UK£78.91UK£44.96n/a19
Mar ’25UK£51.33
UK£62.24
+21.2%
10.2%UK£79.00UK£50.12n/a19
Feb ’25UK£54.74
UK£63.30
+15.6%
10.6%UK£79.58UK£50.84n/a20
Jan ’25UK£58.57
UK£61.42
+4.9%
11.6%UK£79.63UK£51.22n/a19
Dec ’24UK£55.96
UK£58.49
+4.5%
13.1%UK£79.41UK£48.43n/a19
Nov ’24UK£52.62
UK£59.02
+12.2%
12.9%UK£77.52UK£44.95UK£50.3119
Oct ’24UK£51.89
UK£60.19
+16.0%
13.6%UK£78.02UK£44.76UK£52.9819
Sep ’24UK£49.78
UK£59.27
+19.1%
13.2%UK£75.13UK£44.92UK£47.5720
Aug ’24UK£50.92
UK£58.82
+15.5%
13.0%UK£74.50UK£45.17UK£50.0720
Jul ’24UK£49.89
UK£58.12
+16.5%
14.3%UK£74.57UK£38.43UK£52.3620
Jun ’24UK£48.95
UK£60.04
+22.7%
14.0%UK£74.53UK£38.38UK£54.7121
May ’24UK£50.44
UK£59.33
+17.6%
13.7%UK£74.76UK£38.35UK£54.2722
Apr ’24UK£54.86
UK£58.78
+7.1%
13.6%UK£73.34UK£38.42UK£50.1922
Mar ’24UK£59.78
UK£60.34
+0.9%
13.8%UK£75.28UK£37.41UK£51.3323
Feb ’24UK£61.93
UK£59.44
-4.0%
14.2%UK£74.87UK£37.08UK£54.7423
Jan ’24UK£58.02
UK£54.45
-6.1%
14.3%UK£68.11UK£37.06UK£58.5723
Dec ’23UK£55.98
UK£52.66
-5.9%
14.8%UK£67.25UK£37.43UK£55.9623
Nov ’23UK£47.34
UK£54.58
+15.3%
15.4%UK£68.81UK£38.43UK£52.6223

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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