Rio Tinto Group

BATS-CHIXE:RIOL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£128.8b

Rio Tinto Group Valuation

Is RIOL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of RIOL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: RIOL (£74.65) is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value (£53.39)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: RIOL is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for RIOL?

Key metric: As RIOL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for RIOL. This is calculated by dividing RIOL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is RIOL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.3x
EarningsUS$9.97b
Market CapUS$172.20b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does RIOL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for RIOL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average29.5x
ANTO Antofagasta
37.8x10.35%UK£37.6b
GFM Griffin Mining
34.1x28.79%UK£563.3m
AAZ Anglo Asian Mining
25.9xn/aUK£343.0m
FRES Fresnillo
20.1x15.20%UK£20.8b
RIOL Rio Tinto Group
16.3x7.47%UK£128.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: RIOL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the peer average (29.5x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does RIOL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ENPL En+ Group International
2.2x8.04%US$4.67b
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.8xn/aUS$4.08b
EVR EVRAZ
0.4xn/aUS$1.42b
POG Petropavlovsk
2.5x12.47%US$56.91m
No. of Companies6PE01020304050+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: RIOL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (17.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is RIOL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

RIOL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.3x
Fair PE Ratio24x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: RIOL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst RIOL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£74.65
UK£75.98
+1.79%
11.62%UK£93.44UK£63.27n/a20
Jun ’27UK£80.47
UK£74.65
-7.24%
11.33%UK£92.62UK£62.71n/a20
May ’27UK£74.04
UK£71.88
-2.91%
12.94%UK£94.83UK£57.18n/a20
Apr ’27UK£71.18
UK£70.28
-1.26%
11.73%UK£91.05UK£58.42n/a20
Mar ’27UK£73.50
UK£69.65
-5.23%
12.09%UK£90.40UK£57.72n/a20
Feb ’27UK£67.17
UK£63.84
-4.94%
14.42%UK£83.12UK£51.83n/a17
Jan ’27UK£59.80
UK£59.45
-0.59%
12.35%UK£75.71UK£44.80n/a20
Dec ’26UK£54.64
UK£56.77
+3.90%
12.95%UK£73.37UK£44.58n/a20
Nov ’26UK£54.83
UK£56.29
+2.67%
12.93%UK£72.39UK£44.99n/a20
Oct ’26UK£48.98
UK£53.20
+8.62%
14.09%UK£68.78UK£42.99n/a17
Sep ’26UK£45.90
UK£51.46
+12.10%
12.92%UK£66.37UK£41.00n/a19
Aug ’26UK£44.87
UK£52.62
+17.27%
13.16%UK£67.80UK£39.95n/a19
Jul ’26UK£42.57
UK£53.38
+25.40%
14.16%UK£70.38UK£38.89n/a19
Jun ’26UK£44.12
UK£56.13
+27.23%
12.06%UK£72.04UK£44.08UK£80.4719
May ’26UK£44.36
UK£56.74
+27.93%
12.75%UK£72.74UK£43.16UK£74.0419
Apr ’26UK£46.51
UK£58.16
+25.06%
14.71%UK£76.34UK£37.17UK£71.1818
Mar ’26UK£47.95
UK£58.99
+23.02%
15.19%UK£74.95UK£36.76UK£73.5017
Feb ’26UK£48.98
UK£59.71
+21.92%
14.34%UK£76.71UK£37.18UK£67.1718
Jan ’26UK£47.19
UK£60.60
+28.43%
13.77%UK£78.35UK£37.55UK£59.8018
Dec ’25UK£49.28
UK£60.12
+22.00%
13.55%UK£75.29UK£37.16UK£54.6418
Nov ’25UK£50.31
UK£58.84
+16.95%
13.17%UK£73.16UK£37.11UK£54.8318
Oct ’25UK£52.98
UK£58.54
+10.49%
12.84%UK£72.97UK£37.17UK£48.9819
Sep ’25UK£47.57
UK£59.33
+24.73%
13.75%UK£75.29UK£37.23UK£45.9019
Aug ’25UK£50.07
UK£61.73
+23.28%
12.00%UK£77.59UK£46.31UK£44.8719
Jul ’25UK£52.36
UK£61.83
+18.08%
11.77%UK£77.21UK£45.95UK£42.5719
Jun ’25UK£54.71
UK£60.75
+11.04%
11.23%UK£76.77UK£44.93UK£44.1219
UK£75.84
Fair Value
1.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
20
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/06/10 03:22
End of Day Share Price 2026/06/10 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Rio Tinto Group is covered by 51 analysts. 19 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Amos FletcherBarclays
Peter WardBarclays