Lundin Gold Inc.

BATS-CHIXE:LUGS Stock Report

Market Cap: SEK 57.4b

Lundin Gold Valuation

Is LUGS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LUGS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LUGS (SEK239) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK442.97)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LUGS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LUGS?

Key metric: As LUGS is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for LUGS. This is calculated by dividing LUGS's market cap by their current earnings.
What is LUGS's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.9x
EarningsUS$307.97m
Market CapUS$5.21b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LUGS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LUGS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21.8x
HOC Hochschild Mining
47.1x53.2%UK£1.1b
PAF Pan African Resources
10.5x29.4%UK£661.2m
SRB Serabi Gold
5.5x33.1%UK£87.1m
FRES Fresnillo
23.9x33.8%UK£4.7b
LUGS Lundin Gold
16.9x23.5%SEK 7.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LUGS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the peer average (21.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LUGS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.8xn/aUS$4.08b
EVR EVRAZ
0.4xn/aUS$1.42b
MTL Metals Exploration
0.8x-60.3%US$115.18m
ARCM Arc Minerals
1.8xn/aUS$20.03m
No. of Companies7PE0816243240+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LUGS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (9.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LUGS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LUGS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.9x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate LUGS's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LUGS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentSEK 239.00
SEK 276.14
+15.5%
11.1%SEK 329.48SEK 222.21n/a13
Dec ’25SEK 254.00
SEK 280.19
+10.3%
10.2%SEK 334.45SEK 225.56n/a13
Nov ’25SEK 255.00
SEK 250.28
-1.8%
13.8%SEK 321.54SEK 195.22n/a13
Oct ’25SEK 222.00
SEK 223.25
+0.6%
9.9%SEK 262.82SEK 191.48n/a13
Sep ’25SEK 205.00
SEK 206.29
+0.6%
8.1%SEK 242.08SEK 189.12n/a13
Aug ’25n/a
SEK 207.82
0%
7.6%SEK 239.24SEK 182.83n/a13
Jul ’25n/a
SEK 188.62
0%
8.2%SEK 216.07SEK 162.06n/a13
Jun ’25n/a
SEK 186.38
0%
8.6%SEK 216.92SEK 162.69n/a13
May ’25n/a
SEK 182.60
0%
10.9%SEK 221.56SEK 158.25n/a13
Apr ’25n/a
SEK 163.19
0%
6.4%SEK 179.82SEK 138.33n/a13
Mar ’25n/a
SEK 156.00
0%
6.5%SEK 173.18SEK 133.22n/a13
Feb ’25n/a
SEK 159.44
0%
6.7%SEK 176.65SEK 135.89n/a12
Jan ’25n/a
SEK 154.98
0%
4.4%SEK 166.12SEK 143.47n/a10
Dec ’24n/a
SEK 159.57
0%
4.7%SEK 173.94SEK 150.22SEK 254.0011
Nov ’24n/a
SEK 164.36
0%
4.7%SEK 178.16SEK 153.87SEK 255.0011
Oct ’24n/a
SEK 167.81
0%
4.9%SEK 182.12SEK 157.29SEK 222.0012
Sep ’24n/a
SEK 163.34
0%
5.1%SEK 177.06SEK 152.92SEK 205.0011
Aug ’24SEK 140.60
SEK 162.63
+15.7%
4.8%SEK 175.18SEK 151.29n/a10
Jul ’24n/a
SEK 167.24
0%
5.0%SEK 181.52SEK 155.00n/a10
Jun ’24n/a
SEK 165.24
0%
4.6%SEK 178.86SEK 152.74n/a9
May ’24SEK 127.80
SEK 152.81
+19.6%
7.6%SEK 168.37SEK 124.85n/a9
Apr ’24n/a
SEK 138.87
0%
8.1%SEK 153.35SEK 115.01n/a9
Mar ’24n/a
SEK 136.47
0%
7.5%SEK 153.53SEK 115.15n/a9
Feb ’24n/a
SEK 128.49
0%
7.5%SEK 147.71SEK 116.61n/a9
Jan ’24n/a
SEK 109.72
0%
8.0%SEK 120.04SEK 90.03n/a10
Dec ’23n/a
SEK 106.90
0%
10.1%SEK 118.99SEK 88.28n/a10

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 04:56
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Lundin Gold Inc. is covered by 34 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Brian QuastBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Carey MacRuryCanaccord Genuity
Anita SoniCIBC Capital Markets