BHP Group Limited

BATS-CHIXE:BHPL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£100.4b

BHP Group Valuation

Is BHPL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BHPL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BHPL (£19.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£31.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BHPL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BHPL?

Key metric: As BHPL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BHPL. This is calculated by dividing BHPL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BHPL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.9x
EarningsUS$7.90b
Market CapUS$125.64b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BHPL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BHPL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.6x
RIO Rio Tinto Group
8.8x0.9%UK£80.2b
ANTO Antofagasta
25.7x18.3%UK£15.7b
KMR Kenmare Resources
4.1x3.7%UK£277.9m
GFM Griffin Mining
15.6x-3.8%UK£266.6m
BHPL BHP Group
15.9x6.1%UK£202.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BHPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.9x) compared to the peer average (13.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BHPL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.8xn/aUS$4.08b
EVR EVRAZ
0.4xn/aUS$1.42b
MTL Metals Exploration
0.8xn/aUS$115.97m
TGR Tirupati Graphite
1.2xn/aUS$10.50m
No more companies available in this PE range
No. of Companies8PE0816243240+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BHPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.9x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BHPL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BHPL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.9x
Fair PE Ratio21.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BHPL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BHPL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£19.50
UK£23.34
+19.7%
6.7%UK£25.46UK£20.37n/a15
Dec ’25UK£20.79
UK£23.35
+12.3%
6.0%UK£25.55UK£20.52n/a15
Nov ’25UK£21.66
UK£23.38
+8.0%
7.1%UK£26.52UK£20.16n/a15
Oct ’25UK£23.35
UK£23.76
+1.8%
8.3%UK£27.05UK£19.93n/a15
Sep ’25UK£20.85
UK£23.60
+13.2%
8.0%UK£27.29UK£20.67n/a16
Aug ’25UK£21.34
UK£24.17
+13.3%
8.3%UK£27.42UK£20.97n/a16
Jul ’25UK£22.86
UK£24.45
+7.0%
8.3%UK£27.75UK£21.01n/a15
Jun ’25UK£23.13
UK£24.33
+5.2%
8.8%UK£27.53UK£20.84n/a14
May ’25UK£22.08
UK£24.53
+11.1%
8.6%UK£27.59UK£21.14n/a12
Apr ’25UK£22.78
UK£24.38
+7.0%
7.5%UK£27.33UK£21.80n/a16
Mar ’25UK£23.01
UK£24.38
+6.0%
7.2%UK£27.17UK£21.76n/a16
Feb ’25UK£24.17
UK£24.93
+3.2%
9.1%UK£30.89UK£22.27n/a15
Jan ’25UK£26.94
UK£24.60
-8.7%
10.6%UK£29.55UK£20.35n/a15
Dec ’24UK£24.74
UK£24.09
-2.6%
11.1%UK£29.90UK£20.59UK£20.7915
Nov ’24UK£23.64
UK£24.59
+4.0%
9.7%UK£31.09UK£21.39UK£21.6616
Oct ’24UK£23.48
UK£23.88
+1.7%
12.6%UK£30.96UK£19.11UK£23.3516
Sep ’24UK£23.08
UK£22.78
-1.3%
12.0%UK£29.70UK£18.33UK£20.8517
Aug ’24UK£23.92
UK£23.68
-1.0%
11.0%UK£29.43UK£19.27UK£21.3417
Jul ’24UK£23.41
UK£24.29
+3.8%
10.8%UK£29.88UK£19.56UK£22.8616
Jun ’24UK£22.52
UK£24.44
+8.6%
11.6%UK£30.14UK£19.75UK£23.1318
May ’24UK£23.40
UK£24.66
+5.4%
11.6%UK£30.23UK£20.35UK£22.0818
Apr ’24UK£25.65
UK£25.35
-1.2%
11.6%UK£30.71UK£19.46UK£22.7817
Mar ’24UK£26.32
UK£25.79
-2.0%
11.1%UK£31.46UK£20.59UK£23.0117
Feb ’24UK£27.88
UK£25.57
-8.3%
11.4%UK£33.17UK£21.72UK£24.1718
Jan ’24UK£25.75
UK£24.55
-4.6%
10.6%UK£30.63UK£18.77UK£26.9418
Dec ’23UK£25.68
UK£23.35
-9.1%
10.8%UK£30.14UK£18.47UK£24.7418

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 03:07
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

BHP Group Limited is covered by 67 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Varun SikkaAlphaValue
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Ayan GhoshAvior Capital Markets