BHP Group Limited

BATS-CHIXE:BHPL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£123.7b

BHP Group Valuation

Is BHPL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of BHPL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: BHPL (£24.13) is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value (£20.68)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: BHPL is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BHPL?

Key metric: As BHPL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BHPL. This is calculated by dividing BHPL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BHPL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18.5x
EarningsUS$9.02b
Market CapUS$166.91b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BHPL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BHPL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average55.6x
RIO Rio Tinto Group
13.8x6.77%UK£109.7b
ANTO Antofagasta
42.9x12.91%UK£34.7b
FRES Fresnillo
89x43.56%UK£30.1b
GFM Griffin Mining
76.5x47.81%UK£501.5m
BHPL BHP Group
18.5x6.58%UK£244.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BHPL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x) compared to the peer average (55.6x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BHPL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ENPL En+ Group International
2.2x8.04%US$4.67b
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.8xn/aUS$4.08b
EVR EVRAZ
0.4xn/aUS$1.42b
POG Petropavlovsk
2.5x12.47%US$56.91m
No. of Companies7PE01020304050+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BHPL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (20.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BHPL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BHPL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.5x
Fair PE Ratio29.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BHPL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BHPL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£24.13
UK£24.66
+2.20%
11.45%UK£29.40UK£18.81n/a15
Jan ’27UK£22.63
UK£22.23
-1.75%
6.29%UK£24.19UK£19.01n/a15
Dec ’26UK£20.83
UK£22.21
+6.62%
5.88%UK£24.04UK£19.51n/a15
Nov ’26UK£21.69
UK£21.78
+0.40%
7.48%UK£23.53UK£17.69n/a15
Oct ’26UK£20.67
UK£21.23
+2.70%
6.79%UK£22.99UK£17.46n/a15
Sep ’26UK£20.51
UK£20.73
+1.06%
6.32%UK£22.64UK£17.33n/a15
Aug ’26UK£19.07
UK£20.76
+8.88%
6.50%UK£22.73UK£17.78n/a15
Jul ’26UK£17.69
UK£19.84
+12.17%
6.22%UK£21.83UK£18.16n/a15
Jun ’26UK£18.11
UK£20.37
+12.49%
7.14%UK£23.06UK£17.99n/a15
May ’26UK£18.02
UK£20.54
+14.02%
7.14%UK£23.31UK£18.19n/a15
Apr ’26UK£18.87
UK£21.68
+14.91%
6.74%UK£23.65UK£19.12n/a15
Mar ’26UK£19.43
UK£22.46
+15.64%
6.28%UK£24.29UK£20.16n/a15
Feb ’26UK£20.01
UK£22.43
+12.08%
6.68%UK£24.65UK£20.08n/a15
Jan ’26UK£19.59
UK£23.30
+18.96%
6.68%UK£25.24UK£20.37UK£22.6315
Dec ’25UK£20.79
UK£23.32
+12.19%
6.05%UK£25.55UK£20.52UK£20.8315
Nov ’25UK£21.66
UK£23.36
+7.85%
7.12%UK£26.52UK£20.16UK£21.6915
Oct ’25UK£23.35
UK£23.58
+1.00%
8.60%UK£27.05UK£19.93UK£20.6716
Sep ’25UK£20.85
UK£23.60
+13.19%
7.96%UK£27.29UK£20.67UK£20.5116
Aug ’25UK£21.34
UK£24.17
+13.27%
8.27%UK£27.42UK£20.97UK£19.0716
Jul ’25UK£22.86
UK£24.45
+6.95%
8.31%UK£27.75UK£21.01UK£17.6915
Jun ’25UK£23.13
UK£24.33
+5.23%
8.76%UK£27.53UK£20.84UK£18.1114
May ’25UK£22.08
UK£24.53
+11.11%
8.62%UK£27.59UK£21.14UK£18.0212
Apr ’25UK£22.78
UK£24.38
+7.04%
7.49%UK£27.33UK£21.80UK£18.8716
Mar ’25UK£23.01
UK£24.38
+5.98%
7.17%UK£27.17UK£21.76UK£19.4316
Feb ’25UK£24.17
UK£24.93
+3.16%
9.10%UK£30.89UK£22.27UK£20.0115
Jan ’25UK£26.94
UK£24.60
-8.70%
10.55%UK£29.55UK£20.35UK£19.5915
UK£24.57
Fair Value
1.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/01/22 23:32
End of Day Share Price 2026/01/22 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

BHP Group Limited is covered by 57 analysts. 20 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Ayan GhoshAvior Capital Markets
Caroline LearmonthBarclays