Antofagasta plc

BATS-CHIXE:ANTOL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£17.8b

Antofagasta Valuation

Is ANTOL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ANTOL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
UK£69.55
Fair Value
74.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
19
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: ANTOL (£18.05) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£69.55)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ANTOL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ANTOL?

Key metric: As ANTOL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ANTOL. This is calculated by dividing ANTOL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ANTOL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio28.9x
EarningsUS$764.30m
Market CapUS$22.10b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ANTOL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ANTOL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.7x
ATYM Atalaya Mining Copper
26x39.6%UK£558.8m
CAML Central Asia Metals
8.5x10.9%UK£276.6m
FRES Fresnillo
28.2x32.2%UK£5.6b
SMDS DS Smith
36x20.1%UK£8.1b
ANTOL Antofagasta
28.9x16.9%UK£17.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ANTOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.9x) compared to the peer average (24.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ANTOL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.8xn/aUS$4.08b
EVR EVRAZ
0.4xn/aUS$1.42b
MTL Metals Exploration
1.2x-14.5%US$175.97m
TGR Tirupati Graphite
1.2xn/aUS$10.50m
No more companies available in this PE range
No. of Companies8PE0816243240+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ANTOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.9x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (9.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ANTOL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ANTOL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio28.9x
Fair PE Ratio23x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ANTOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ANTOL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£18.05
UK£18.37
+1.8%
16.6%UK£24.18UK£12.58n/a19
Feb ’26UK£17.20
UK£18.41
+7.1%
16.7%UK£24.31UK£12.65n/a19
Jan ’26UK£15.94
UK£19.07
+19.7%
15.8%UK£24.52UK£13.42n/a19
Dec ’25UK£17.00
UK£19.62
+15.4%
16.4%UK£25.20UK£13.43n/a19
Nov ’25UK£17.63
UK£18.97
+7.6%
17.2%UK£24.55UK£13.01n/a19
Oct ’25UK£20.01
UK£18.77
-6.2%
16.2%UK£24.53UK£13.61n/a18
Sep ’25UK£18.52
UK£19.11
+3.2%
15.4%UK£24.75UK£13.73n/a17
Aug ’25UK£19.24
UK£19.94
+3.7%
17.6%UK£25.97UK£14.09n/a17
Jul ’25UK£21.10
UK£19.62
-7.0%
20.1%UK£26.27UK£11.07n/a17
Jun ’25UK£21.81
UK£18.59
-14.8%
24.0%UK£26.02UK£10.97n/a17
May ’25UK£21.80
UK£18.38
-15.7%
24.0%UK£25.87UK£10.12n/a17
Apr ’25UK£20.42
UK£16.47
-19.3%
23.4%UK£22.43UK£10.00n/a17
Mar ’25UK£18.12
UK£15.35
-15.3%
19.7%UK£21.10UK£10.05n/a17
Feb ’25UK£17.45
UK£15.34
-12.1%
20.4%UK£21.07UK£10.04UK£17.2017
Jan ’25UK£16.83
UK£14.27
-15.2%
18.0%UK£19.00UK£9.65UK£15.9417
Dec ’24UK£14.91
UK£13.87
-6.9%
18.8%UK£18.68UK£9.65UK£17.0017
Nov ’24UK£13.15
UK£14.42
+9.7%
18.5%UK£18.96UK£10.77UK£17.6317
Oct ’24UK£14.35
UK£14.89
+3.8%
19.6%UK£19.93UK£10.80UK£20.0117
Sep ’24UK£14.66
UK£14.49
-1.1%
17.9%UK£19.10UK£10.80UK£18.5217
Aug ’24UK£16.50
UK£14.82
-10.2%
15.5%UK£19.16UK£10.72UK£19.2417
Jul ’24UK£14.61
UK£15.02
+2.8%
16.6%UK£19.65UK£9.51UK£21.1017
Jun ’24UK£13.81
UK£15.34
+11.1%
18.1%UK£22.01UK£9.71UK£21.8117
May ’24UK£14.57
UK£15.00
+3.0%
17.9%UK£21.91UK£9.67UK£21.8016
Apr ’24UK£15.83
UK£14.79
-6.5%
19.4%UK£22.50UK£9.71UK£20.4216
Mar ’24UK£16.40
UK£14.95
-8.8%
19.9%UK£23.18UK£9.33UK£18.1216
Feb ’24UK£17.21
UK£14.49
-15.8%
22.6%UK£23.05UK£9.29UK£17.4516
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 19 Analysts
UK£18.35
Fair Value
1.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
19
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/07 18:34
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/07 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Antofagasta plc is covered by 50 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Pierre-Yves GauthierAlphaValue
Peter WardBarclays
Izak RossouwBarclays