DS Smith Valuation

Is SMDS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SMDS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SMDS (£4.62) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£8.44)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SMDS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SMDS?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

SMDS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA9.3x
PEG Ratio2.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SMDS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SMDS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.2x
MNDI Mondi
18.6x17.0%UK£6.1b
CRDA Croda International
35.6x16.3%UK£5.8b
FRES Fresnillo
24.5x28.9%UK£4.6b
ENPL En+ Group International
2.2x8.0%US$4.7b
SMDS DS Smith
16.6x7.9%UK£6.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SMDS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the peer average (26.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SMDS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Packaging Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a16.4%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a16.4%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SMDS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the European Packaging industry average (15.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SMDS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SMDS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.6x
Fair PE Ratio17.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SMDS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SMDS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£4.62
UK£4.37
-5.4%
9.3%UK£4.87UK£3.60n/a9
Sep ’25UK£4.68
UK£4.22
-9.9%
8.3%UK£4.75UK£3.60n/a8
Aug ’25UK£4.57
UK£4.00
-12.4%
7.9%UK£4.40UK£3.42n/a8
Jul ’25UK£4.19
UK£3.94
-5.9%
7.4%UK£4.40UK£3.42n/a8
Jun ’25UK£3.81
UK£3.99
+4.7%
7.2%UK£4.40UK£3.42n/a8
May ’25UK£3.54
UK£4.01
+13.1%
7.3%UK£4.40UK£3.42n/a8
Apr ’25UK£3.97
UK£3.78
-4.8%
9.8%UK£4.20UK£3.10n/a6
Mar ’25UK£3.26
UK£3.76
+15.1%
10.7%UK£4.20UK£3.00n/a6
Feb ’25UK£2.76
UK£3.62
+31.2%
8.4%UK£4.00UK£3.00n/a10
Jan ’25UK£3.07
UK£3.64
+18.6%
8.1%UK£4.00UK£3.00n/a11
Dec ’24UK£2.97
UK£3.52
+18.6%
12.8%UK£4.00UK£2.70n/a11
Nov ’24UK£2.83
UK£3.54
+25.0%
11.5%UK£4.00UK£2.70n/a11
Oct ’24UK£2.87
UK£3.53
+23.1%
11.6%UK£4.00UK£2.70UK£4.6511
Sep ’24UK£3.13
UK£3.56
+13.8%
10.1%UK£4.00UK£2.90UK£4.6812
Aug ’24UK£3.08
UK£3.68
+19.4%
11.3%UK£4.50UK£2.90UK£4.5712
Jul ’24UK£2.72
UK£3.83
+40.9%
14.9%UK£5.00UK£2.90UK£4.1913
Jun ’24UK£3.07
UK£3.94
+28.4%
13.4%UK£5.00UK£3.20UK£3.8112
May ’24UK£3.10
UK£3.94
+27.2%
13.4%UK£5.00UK£3.20UK£3.5412
Apr ’24UK£3.15
UK£3.99
+26.8%
13.1%UK£5.00UK£3.10UK£3.9711
Mar ’24UK£3.43
UK£4.08
+19.2%
10.9%UK£5.00UK£3.40UK£3.2611
Feb ’24UK£3.57
UK£4.03
+13.0%
11.5%UK£5.00UK£3.40UK£2.7611
Jan ’24UK£3.22
UK£3.94
+22.5%
13.3%UK£5.00UK£3.10UK£3.0710
Dec ’23UK£3.04
UK£3.67
+20.8%
15.1%UK£5.00UK£2.80UK£2.9711
Nov ’23UK£2.92
UK£3.70
+26.9%
15.0%UK£5.00UK£2.80UK£2.8311
Oct ’23UK£2.57
UK£3.74
+45.6%
16.4%UK£5.00UK£2.50UK£2.8711

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


Discover undervalued companies