Aviva plc

LSE:AV. Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£12.1b

Aviva Valuation

Is AV. undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AV. when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AV. (£4.57) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£10.27)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AV. is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AV.?

Key metric: As AV. is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AV.. This is calculated by dividing AV.'s market cap by their current earnings.
What is AV.'s PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.5x
EarningsUK£1.27b
Market CapUK£12.14b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AV.'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AV. vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19.3x
LGEN Legal & General Group
46.5x29.6%UK£13.1b
ADM Admiral Group
19.5x12.8%UK£7.8b
BEZ Beazley
4.9x-17.8%UK£5.1b
HSX Hiscox
6.4x-2.3%UK£3.7b
AV. Aviva
9.5x4.5%UK£12.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AV. is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x) compared to the peer average (19.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AV.'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Insurance Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AV. 9.5xIndustry Avg. 11.8xNo. of Companies14PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AV. is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x) compared to the European Insurance industry average (11.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AV.'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AV. PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.5x
Fair PE Ratio13.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AV. is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AV. forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£4.57
UK£5.49
+20.1%
5.0%UK£5.90UK£4.90n/a13
Dec ’25UK£4.84
UK£5.46
+12.8%
5.3%UK£5.90UK£4.80n/a13
Nov ’25UK£4.58
UK£5.39
+17.7%
6.3%UK£5.90UK£4.65n/a15
Oct ’25UK£4.80
UK£5.44
+13.5%
6.2%UK£5.90UK£4.80n/a16
Sep ’25UK£5.05
UK£5.40
+7.0%
6.5%UK£5.90UK£4.80n/a15
Aug ’25UK£4.90
UK£5.28
+7.8%
7.4%UK£5.84UK£4.35n/a15
Jul ’25UK£4.76
UK£5.17
+8.7%
7.1%UK£5.84UK£4.50n/a15
Jun ’25UK£4.80
UK£5.12
+6.7%
8.5%UK£5.84UK£4.20n/a15
May ’25UK£4.65
UK£5.05
+8.6%
8.6%UK£5.75UK£4.20n/a15
Apr ’25UK£4.97
UK£5.05
+1.7%
8.6%UK£5.75UK£4.20n/a15
Mar ’25UK£4.48
UK£4.93
+10.1%
6.8%UK£5.75UK£4.45n/a15
Feb ’25UK£4.24
UK£4.91
+15.8%
6.9%UK£5.75UK£4.45n/a15
Jan ’25UK£4.35
UK£4.83
+11.2%
6.6%UK£5.45UK£4.22n/a15
Dec ’24UK£4.20
UK£4.82
+14.7%
6.9%UK£5.45UK£4.22UK£4.8415
Nov ’24UK£4.02
UK£4.84
+20.3%
7.4%UK£5.45UK£4.07UK£4.5815
Oct ’24UK£3.90
UK£4.77
+22.5%
8.0%UK£5.43UK£4.07UK£4.8015
Sep ’24UK£3.75
UK£4.75
+26.5%
7.9%UK£5.43UK£4.07UK£5.0515
Aug ’24UK£3.86
UK£4.87
+26.0%
9.4%UK£5.60UK£4.18UK£4.9016
Jul ’24UK£3.95
UK£4.99
+26.2%
8.1%UK£5.60UK£4.20UK£4.7617
Jun ’24UK£3.99
UK£5.00
+25.3%
8.1%UK£5.60UK£4.20UK£4.8017
May ’24UK£4.23
UK£5.01
+18.5%
7.4%UK£5.46UK£4.20UK£4.6517
Apr ’24UK£4.04
UK£5.01
+24.1%
7.4%UK£5.46UK£4.20UK£4.9717
Mar ’24UK£4.48
UK£4.96
+10.6%
8.5%UK£5.60UK£4.25UK£4.4818
Feb ’24UK£4.50
UK£5.00
+11.1%
8.9%UK£5.64UK£4.25UK£4.2418
Jan ’24UK£4.43
UK£4.96
+12.0%
9.3%UK£5.65UK£4.00UK£4.3518
Dec ’23UK£4.46
UK£4.97
+11.5%
9.4%UK£5.65UK£4.00UK£4.2017

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 00:45
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Aviva plc is covered by 41 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Pierre-Yves GauthierAlphaValue
Larissa van DeventerBarclays
Andrew BroadfieldBarclays