Aviva plc

LSE:AV. Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£12.7b

Aviva Valuation

Is AV. undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AV. when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AV. (£4.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£10.31)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AV. is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AV.?

Key metric: As AV. is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AV.. This is calculated by dividing AV.'s market cap by their current earnings.
What is AV.'s PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10x
EarningsUK£1.27b
Market CapUK£12.74b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AV.'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AV. vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.4x
LGEN Legal & General Group
45.1x28.0%UK£12.7b
ADM Admiral Group
18x11.6%UK£7.2b
HSX Hiscox
6x-2.4%UK£3.4b
BEZ Beazley
4.5x-17.0%UK£4.7b
AV. Aviva
10x4.2%UK£12.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AV. is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10x) compared to the peer average (18.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AV.'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Insurance Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AV. 10.0xIndustry Avg. 11.7xNo. of Companies12PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AV. is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10x) compared to the European Insurance industry average (11.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AV.'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AV. PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10x
Fair PE Ratio13.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AV. is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AV. forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£4.80
UK£5.44
+13.5%
6.1%UK£5.90UK£4.65n/a15
Nov ’25UK£4.58
UK£5.39
+17.7%
6.3%UK£5.90UK£4.65n/a15
Oct ’25UK£4.80
UK£5.44
+13.5%
6.2%UK£5.90UK£4.80n/a16
Sep ’25UK£5.05
UK£5.40
+7.0%
6.5%UK£5.90UK£4.80n/a15
Aug ’25UK£4.90
UK£5.28
+7.8%
7.4%UK£5.84UK£4.35n/a15
Jul ’25UK£4.76
UK£5.17
+8.7%
7.1%UK£5.84UK£4.50n/a15
Jun ’25UK£4.80
UK£5.12
+6.7%
8.5%UK£5.84UK£4.20n/a15
May ’25UK£4.65
UK£5.05
+8.6%
8.6%UK£5.75UK£4.20n/a15
Apr ’25UK£4.97
UK£5.05
+1.7%
8.6%UK£5.75UK£4.20n/a15
Mar ’25UK£4.48
UK£4.93
+10.1%
6.8%UK£5.75UK£4.45n/a15
Feb ’25UK£4.24
UK£4.91
+15.8%
6.9%UK£5.75UK£4.45n/a15
Jan ’25UK£4.35
UK£4.83
+11.2%
6.6%UK£5.45UK£4.22n/a15
Dec ’24UK£4.20
UK£4.82
+14.7%
6.9%UK£5.45UK£4.22n/a15
Nov ’24UK£4.02
UK£4.84
+20.3%
7.4%UK£5.45UK£4.07UK£4.5815
Oct ’24UK£3.90
UK£4.77
+22.5%
8.0%UK£5.43UK£4.07UK£4.8015
Sep ’24UK£3.75
UK£4.75
+26.5%
7.9%UK£5.43UK£4.07UK£5.0515
Aug ’24UK£3.86
UK£4.87
+26.0%
9.4%UK£5.60UK£4.18UK£4.9016
Jul ’24UK£3.95
UK£4.99
+26.2%
8.1%UK£5.60UK£4.20UK£4.7617
Jun ’24UK£3.99
UK£5.00
+25.3%
8.1%UK£5.60UK£4.20UK£4.8017
May ’24UK£4.23
UK£5.01
+18.5%
7.4%UK£5.46UK£4.20UK£4.6517
Apr ’24UK£4.04
UK£5.01
+24.1%
7.4%UK£5.46UK£4.20UK£4.9717
Mar ’24UK£4.48
UK£4.96
+10.6%
8.5%UK£5.60UK£4.25UK£4.4818
Feb ’24UK£4.50
UK£5.00
+11.1%
8.9%UK£5.64UK£4.25UK£4.2418
Jan ’24UK£4.43
UK£4.96
+12.0%
9.3%UK£5.65UK£4.00UK£4.3518
Dec ’23UK£4.46
UK£4.97
+11.5%
9.4%UK£5.65UK£4.00UK£4.2017
Nov ’23UK£4.21
UK£4.91
+16.6%
9.2%UK£5.64UK£4.00UK£4.0219

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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