Admiral Group plc

LSE:ADM Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£7.2b

Admiral Group Valuation

Is ADM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ADM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ADM (£24.31) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£48.61)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ADM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ADM?

Key metric: As ADM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ADM. This is calculated by dividing ADM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ADM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18.2x
EarningsUK£400.90m
Market CapUK£7.22b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ADM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ADM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.7x
BEZ Beazley
4.7x-17.0%UK£4.7b
HSX Hiscox
6.2x-2.4%UK£3.4b
LRE Lancashire Holdings
5.2x-7.2%UK£1.5b
DLG Direct Line Insurance Group
6.7x8.0%UK£2.0b
ADM Admiral Group
18.2x11.6%UK£7.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ADM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.2x) compared to the peer average (5.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ADM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Insurance Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ADM 18.2xIndustry Avg. 11.7xNo. of Companies12PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ADM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.2x) compared to the European Insurance industry average (11.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ADM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ADM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.2x
Fair PE Ratio14.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ADM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ADM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£24.31
UK£29.82
+22.7%
15.5%UK£35.50UK£19.45n/a16
Nov ’25UK£25.63
UK£30.01
+17.1%
14.8%UK£35.50UK£19.45n/a16
Oct ’25UK£27.82
UK£30.01
+7.9%
15.4%UK£35.50UK£19.45n/a16
Sep ’25UK£29.18
UK£29.96
+2.7%
15.3%UK£35.50UK£19.45n/a16
Aug ’25UK£27.28
UK£28.37
+4.0%
15.3%UK£34.00UK£19.45n/a16
Jul ’25UK£25.74
UK£28.25
+9.7%
15.7%UK£34.00UK£19.45n/a16
Jun ’25UK£27.14
UK£28.00
+3.2%
15.2%UK£34.00UK£19.45n/a16
May ’25UK£27.01
UK£27.72
+2.6%
15.4%UK£34.00UK£19.45n/a15
Apr ’25UK£28.37
UK£27.18
-4.2%
14.4%UK£32.10UK£19.45n/a15
Mar ’25UK£26.78
UK£25.29
-5.6%
16.7%UK£30.70UK£19.45n/a15
Feb ’25UK£24.99
UK£25.20
+0.8%
17.2%UK£30.70UK£19.45n/a14
Jan ’25UK£26.84
UK£24.20
-9.8%
20.3%UK£30.70UK£17.00n/a14
Dec ’24UK£27.06
UK£23.64
-12.6%
21.0%UK£30.70UK£17.00n/a14
Nov ’24UK£24.93
UK£22.32
-10.5%
18.0%UK£30.70UK£17.00UK£25.6314
Oct ’24UK£23.77
UK£21.68
-8.8%
17.8%UK£30.70UK£17.00UK£27.8215
Sep ’24UK£24.30
UK£21.61
-11.1%
17.8%UK£30.70UK£16.50UK£29.1815
Aug ’24UK£21.30
UK£21.65
+1.7%
17.7%UK£30.70UK£16.50UK£27.2815
Jul ’24UK£20.82
UK£21.96
+5.5%
17.5%UK£30.70UK£16.50UK£25.7415
Jun ’24UK£23.07
UK£22.16
-4.0%
19.0%UK£33.00UK£16.50UK£27.1415
May ’24UK£23.11
UK£22.20
-3.9%
18.9%UK£33.00UK£16.50UK£27.0115
Apr ’24UK£20.38
UK£22.11
+8.5%
19.2%UK£33.00UK£16.50UK£28.3716
Mar ’24UK£21.48
UK£22.81
+6.2%
22.1%UK£36.40UK£17.00UK£26.7816
Feb ’24UK£22.05
UK£23.29
+5.6%
24.2%UK£36.40UK£17.00UK£24.9916
Jan ’24UK£21.37
UK£23.00
+7.6%
24.9%UK£36.40UK£16.25UK£26.8416
Dec ’23UK£20.59
UK£23.02
+11.8%
24.7%UK£36.40UK£16.25UK£27.0616
Nov ’23UK£20.30
UK£22.84
+12.5%
25.3%UK£36.40UK£16.25UK£24.9317

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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