Aviva Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Aviva is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 7.8% and 5.4% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 7.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 14.6% in 3 years.

Key information

7.8%

Earnings growth rate

7.1%

EPS growth rate

Insurance earnings growth	12.3%
Revenue growth rate	5.4%
Future return on equity	14.6%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	26 Apr 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

LSE:AV. - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (GBP Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2026	32,859	1,414	N/A	-1,193	1
12/31/2025	43,036	1,314	1,444	-2,417	3
12/31/2024	42,615	1,164	1,266	-3,357	2
12/31/2023	21,572	1,034	-3,082	-2,732	N/A
9/30/2023	19,629	254	2,751	2,994	N/A
6/30/2023	-3,479	-636	8,584	8,719	N/A
3/31/2023	-4,220	-915	12,184	12,301	N/A
12/31/2022	16,203	-1,085	15,784	15,883	N/A
9/30/2022	17,393	-563	11,016	11,108	N/A
6/30/2022	18,582	-42	6,248	6,333	N/A
3/31/2022	17,622	104	3,180	3,277	N/A
12/31/2021	16,662	249	112	220	N/A
9/30/2021	17,682	439	-958	-857	N/A
6/30/2021	18,702	628	-2,029	-1,935	N/A
3/31/2021	22,273	969	-2,324	-2,208	N/A
12/31/2020	25,844	1,310	-2,620	-2,482	N/A
6/30/2020	29,510	2,108	4,520	4,650	N/A
3/31/2020	36,233	2,281	5,184	5,309	N/A
12/31/2019	42,955	2,454	5,848	5,968	N/A
9/30/2019	41,470	2,399	3,464	3,634	N/A
6/30/2019	36,542	2,301	1,106	1,300	N/A
3/31/2019	29,407	1,908	3,178	3,351	N/A
12/31/2018	22,271	1,515	5,250	5,401	N/A
9/30/2018	25,653	1,320	6,380	6,522	N/A
6/30/2018	29,034	1,125	7,510	7,643	N/A
3/31/2018	32,088	1,270	7,538	7,692	N/A
12/31/2017	35,141	1,415	7,565	7,741	N/A
9/30/2017	35,527	1,269	N/A	8,105	N/A
6/30/2017	35,912	1,123	N/A	8,469	N/A
3/31/2017	38,032	871	N/A	6,608	N/A
12/31/2016	40,151	618	N/A	4,747	N/A
9/30/2016	36,610	570	N/A	3,904	N/A
6/30/2016	33,068	521	N/A	3,061	N/A
3/31/2016	27,027	692	N/A	3,908	N/A
12/31/2015	20,985	862	N/A	4,755	N/A
6/30/2015	28,292	1,132	N/A	3,836	N/A
3/31/2015	32,038	1,279	N/A	1,646	N/A
12/31/2014	35,784	1,425	N/A	-544	N/A
6/30/2014	31,932	1,081	N/A	-93	N/A
3/31/2014	29,500	865	N/A	1,963	N/A
12/31/2013	27,068	648	N/A	4,018	N/A
9/30/2013	34,654	537	N/A	3,347	N/A
6/30/2013	34,539	-55	N/A	2,676	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AV.'s forecast earnings growth (7.8% per year) is above the savings rate (1.6%).

Earnings vs Market: AV.'s earnings (7.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the UK market (12.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AV.'s earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: AV.'s revenue (5.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (3.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AV.'s revenue (5.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AV.'s Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.6%).

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Aviva Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Aviva plc Provides Earnings Guidance for the Half Year and Full Year 2023

Price target decreased to UK£4.97

Price target increased to UK£5.35

Consensus forecasts updated

Consensus forecasts updated

Consensus forecasts updated

Recent updates

Aviva plc Announces Stepped Down of Mike Craston from the Board

Aviva plc (LSE:AV.) completed the acquisition of AIG Life Limited from Corebridge Financial, Inc. (NYSE:CRBG) for £453 million.

Upcoming dividend of UK£0.22 per share

High number of new directors

Group CFO & Executive Director exercised options to buy UK£44k worth of stock.

Aviva plc (Aviva) Announces Directorate Appointments

Aviva plc Proposes Final Dividend for 2023, Payable on 23 May 2024

Full year 2023 earnings released

Aviva plc (LSE:AV.) agreed to acquire Probitas Holdings (Bermuda) Limited from Saudi Reinsurance Company and others for £240 million.

Aviva plc (LSE:AV.) agreed to acquire Probitas Holdings (Bermuda) Limited for £240 million.

Aviva plc to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Aug 14, 2024

Aviva plc to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Mar 07, 2024

Aviva plc (LSE:AV.) agreed to acquire AIG Life Limited from Corebridge Financial, Inc. (NYSE:CRBG) ) for £460 million.

Aviva plc (LSE:AV.) agreed to acquire AIG Life Limited from Corebridge Financial, Inc. (NYSE:CRBG) for

Aviva Appoints Jason Storah as CEO of Its UK & Ireland General Insurance Business

First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: UK£0.12 (vs UK£0.079 loss in 1H 2022)

Aviva plc Announces Interim Dividend for the Financial Year Ending 31 December 2023, Payable on 05 October 2023

Aviva plc (LSE:AV.) signed an agreement to acquire home insurance portfolio of Barclays UK from Barclays Bank UK PLC.

Aviva plc Provides Earnings Guidance for the Half Year and Full Year 2023

Aviva plc Declares Final Dividend for the Year Ended 31 December 2022

Upcoming dividend of UK£0.21 per share at 7.4% yield

Full year 2022 earnings released: UK£0.38 loss per share (vs UK£0.084 profit in FY 2021)

Price target decreased to UK£4.97

Price target increased to UK£5.35

High number of new directors

Aviva plc to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Mar 09, 2023

Group CEO & Executive Director recently bought UK£100k worth of stock

Aviva International Holdings Limited acquired additional 25% stake in Aviva Life Insurance Company India Limited from Dabur Invest Corp.

Aviva's (LON:AV.) Shareholders Will Receive A Bigger Dividend Than Last Year

Aviva plc (LSE:AV.) acquired Succession Group Ltd from Inflexion Private Equity Partners LLP.

First half 2022 earnings released

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

Aviva plc Declares Interim Dividend for the Financial Year Ending December 31, 2022, Payable on September 28, 2022

Consensus forecasts updated

Aviva plc (LSE:AV.) signed a agreement to acquire high-net-worth personal lines business in UK from Azur Underwriting Limited.

Consensus forecasts updated

Consensus forecasts updated

Consensus forecasts updated

Consensus forecasts updated

Things Look Grim For Aviva plc (LON:AV.) After Today's Downgrade

Aviva Announces Dividend Guidance for 2022 and 2023 Remains Unchanged

Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week

Aviva plc Appoints Mike Craston as A Non-Executive Director

Consensus forecasts updated

Price target decreased to UK£5.95

Aviva plc Approves A Final Dividend for the Year Ended 31 December 2021

Sky Limited acquired Neos Uk Limited from Aviva plc (LSE:AV.).

Aviva plc Appoints Charlotte Jones as Chief Financial Officer with Effect from 5 September 2022

Aviva's (LON:AV.) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's

Group CEO & Director exercised options to buy UK£73k worth of stock.

Upcoming dividend of UK£0.15 per share

Group CEO & Director recently bought UK£502k worth of stock

Aviva's (LON:AV.) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's

Revenue Downgrade: Here's What Analysts Forecast For Aviva plc (LON:AV.)

Aviva plc (LSE:AV.) agreed to acquire Succession Group Ltd for approximately £390 million.

Full year 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Aviva plc (LSE:AV.) agreed to acquire Succession Group Ltd for approximately £390 million.

Aviva plc Announces Directorate Changes

Manulife Financial Asia Limited completed the acquisition of a 90% stake in Aviva Vietnam Life Insurance Co Ltd from Aviva plc (LSE:AV.).

CNP Assurances SA (ENXTPA:CNP) completed the acquisition of Aviva S.p.A., Aviva Life S.p.A. and Aviva Italia Servizi S.c.a.r.l. from Aviva plc (LSE:AV).

Allianz SE (XTRA:ALV) completed the acquisition of Poland Business of Aviva from Aviva plc (LSE:AV.).

Consensus EPS estimates fall to UK£0.50

Upcoming dividend of UK£0.073 per share

Aviva's (LON:AV.) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's

Aviva plc (LSE:AV.) commences an Equity Buyback Plan for 392,000,000 shares, representing 9.98% of its issued share capital, under the authorization approved on May 6, 2021.

Independent Non-Executive Chairman recently bought UK£424k worth of stock

Burmans Reportedly to Offload 25% Stake in Aviva Life

Deka-Immobilienmetropolen Fund (DB:D3KB), a fund managed by Deka Immobilien Investment GMBH acquired Office building in Dublin from Aviva plc (LSE:AV.) for £21.22 million.

Cevian Capital AB acquired 4.95% stake in Aviva plc (LSE:AV.).