Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Associated British Foods plc (LON:ABF) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Associated British Foods
What Is Associated British Foods's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Associated British Foods had debt of UK£562.0m at the end of September 2023, a reduction from UK£640.0m over a year. However, its balance sheet shows it holds UK£1.46b in cash, so it actually has UK£899.0m net cash.
How Strong Is Associated British Foods' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Associated British Foods had liabilities of UK£3.69b due within 12 months, and liabilities of UK£3.96b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had UK£1.46b in cash and UK£1.67b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total UK£4.52b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Associated British Foods has a very large market capitalization of UK£18.0b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Associated British Foods also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.
Fortunately, Associated British Foods grew its EBIT by 9.7% in the last year, making that debt load look even more manageable. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Associated British Foods's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. While Associated British Foods has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. In the last three years, Associated British Foods's free cash flow amounted to 49% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Summing Up
While Associated British Foods does have more liabilities than liquid assets, it also has net cash of UK£899.0m. And it also grew its EBIT by 9.7% over the last year. So we don't have any problem with Associated British Foods's use of debt. Above most other metrics, we think its important to track how fast earnings per share is growing, if at all. If you've also come to that realization, you're in luck, because today you can view this interactive graph of Associated British Foods's earnings per share history for free.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About LSE:ABF
Associated British Foods
Operates as a diversified food, ingredients, and retail company worldwide.
Flawless balance sheet, undervalued and pays a dividend.
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