Associated British Foods plc

LSE:ABF Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£12.8b

Associated British Foods Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Associated British Foods is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 8.8% and 3.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 10.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 10.1% in 3 years.

Key information

8.8%

Earnings growth rate

10.45%

EPS growth rate

Food earnings growth10.8%
Revenue growth rate3.1%
Future return on equity10.09%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated05 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Apr 28

ABF: Execution Risks And Margin Pressure Will Weigh On Future Returns

Associated British Foods' analyst price target has been cut by roughly £1.63 per share as analysts factor in updated fair value estimates, a slightly higher discount rate, and adjustments to revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions following recent target reductions and a downgrade from major banks. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has turned more cautious on Associated British Foods, with several bearish analysts trimming price targets by between £1.10 and £1.60 per share and one institution shifting to a more negative rating.
Narrative Update • Apr 14

ABF: Cost Discipline And New CFO Appointment Will Support Future Share Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Associated British Foods to £22.50, reflecting slightly adjusted assumptions on long run revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E following recent research commentary, including a downgrade at RBC Capital. Analyst Commentary Recent research has introduced a more cautious headline stance on Associated British Foods, along with a trim to the price target to £22.50.
Narrative Update • Mar 31

ABF: Margin Reset And Primark Stabilisation Will Support Future Share Upside

The analyst fair value estimate for Associated British Foods has edged up from £22.40 to £22.50 as analysts factor in recent price target cuts, citing weaker Primark sales trends, concerns about a margin reset, and softer sugar pricing, despite only modest tweaks to underlying growth and margin assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has turned more cautious on Associated British Foods, with several price target cuts and rating downgrades clustering around concerns on Primark, margins and sugar pricing.
Narrative Update • Mar 17

ABF: Margin Reset And Cash Discipline Will Support Future Share Upside

Associated British Foods' updated analyst price target now reflects a series of reductions from about £18.00 to £16.50. Analysts point to weaker Primark sales trends, pressure on margins and softer sugar pricing as key drivers behind the shift.
Narrative Update • Mar 02

ABF: Weaker Demand And Pricing Reset Will Shape Future Share Performance

The analyst price target for Associated British Foods has been reduced to £19.54 from £22.39, reflecting a lower fair value estimate. Analysts are accounting for softer revenue growth, thinner profit margins, a slightly higher discount rate and recent sector research that points to weaker demand at Primark and lower sugar pricing.
Narrative Update • Feb 16

ABF: Primark Margin Reset And Steady Cash Flows Will Unlock Share Upside

Narrative Update on Associated British Foods Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Associated British Foods by around £0.15 to £0.35 per share. They point to softer demand at Primark, pressure from lower sugar prices, and concerns around Primark's sales growth and margin reset.
Narrative Update • Feb 02

ABF: Primark Separation And Buyback Will Unlock Future Share Upside

Narrative Update on Associated British Foods The analyst price target for Associated British Foods has been reduced to £16.50 to £19.40 per share, with the fair value estimate moving from £28.82 to £22.40. This reflects analysts factoring in softer assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E following recent sector research and rating changes.
Analysis Article • Feb 02

Associated British Foods (LON:ABF) Shareholders Will Want The ROCE Trajectory To Continue

If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...
Narrative Update • Jan 19

ABF: Primark Margin Reset And Weaker Sugar Pricing Will Challenge Earnings

The analyst price target for Associated British Foods has been reduced from £17.50 to £16.50 as analysts factor in lower revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, a higher 7.07% discount rate, and recent cuts to Street targets following concerns around Primark’s sales trends, margin reset, and softer sugar pricing. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Associated British Foods has turned more cautious, with several bearish analysts trimming price targets and reducing their expectations for the shares.
Analysis Article • Jan 08

Is Associated British Foods plc (LON:ABF) Potentially Undervalued?

Today we're going to take a look at the well-established Associated British Foods plc ( LON:ABF ). The company's stock...
Narrative Update • Jan 05

ABF: Primark Separation Review And Buybacks Will Steady Future Share Performance

Analysts have lifted their price targets on Associated British Foods into a higher £18.30 to £25.00 range, citing expectations that a potential separation of the Primark business could support further upside in the shares. Analyst Commentary Recent research views on Associated British Foods reflect a clear split between those who see more upside from current levels and those who remain cautious on the risk and reward trade off.
Analysis Article • Dec 23

We Think Associated British Foods (LON:ABF) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Narrative Update • Dec 19

ABF: Primark Separation And Buybacks Will Shape Future Share Performance

Analysts have modestly raised their price targets for Associated British Foods, reflecting expectations that operational improvements, a potential separation of the Primark business, and higher profit margins will support upside for the shares, even though the fundamental fair value estimate has been reduced slightly to about £22.39 from roughly £22.76 per share. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reveals a divided but constructive stance on Associated British Foods, with some bullish analysts lifting ratings and price targets while more cautious voices retain negative recommendations despite modest target increases.
Narrative Update • Dec 05

ABF: Potential Primark Split And Disciplined Buybacks Will Shape Future Share Performance

Analysts have nudged their price targets for Associated British Foods modestly higher, with recent moves such as a lift from about 1,770 GBp to 1,830 GBp and from 2,200 GBp to 2,500 GBp, citing expectations that a potential Primark separation and resilient profitability could unlock further shareholder value. Analyst Commentary Analysts are split on the near term outlook for Associated British Foods, with recent rating and target price changes reflecting differing views on the pace at which value from Primark and the wider portfolio can be realised.
Narrative Update • Nov 21

ABF: Separation Plans And Retail Expansion Will Drive Future Share Performance

Analysts have modestly raised their fair value estimate for Associated British Foods to £22.76, up from £22.46. They cite anticipated strategic moves such as a possible Primark separation and improving profit margins as key factors supporting the revised price target.
Analysis Article • Nov 07

Risks To Shareholder Returns Are Elevated At These Prices For Associated British Foods plc (LON:ABF)

With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 16x in the United Kingdom, you could be forgiven for...
Narrative Update • Nov 06

ABF: The Potential Separation And Restructuring Will Shape Future Prospects

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Associated British Foods by approximately £0.64 to £22.46 per share. This change reflects increased optimism around revenue growth potential and the possibility of a Primark business separation.
Narrative Update • Oct 17

Primark's Expansion And Click & Collect Will Attract Future Customers

Analysts have lowered their price target for Associated British Foods to £21.30 from £22.20. They cite a more cautious outlook on the UK consumer as the primary rationale for the adjustment.
Narrative Update • Oct 03

Primark's Expansion And Click & Collect Will Attract Future Customers

The analyst price target for Associated British Foods was lowered slightly from £22.07 to £21.83 per share. Analysts have adjusted forecasts in response to a more cautious industry outlook and moderating revenue growth expectations.
Analysis Article • Oct 03

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Associated British Foods plc (LON:ABF)

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Associated British Foods fair value estimate is UK£22.09 With...
Narrative Update • Sep 16

Primark's Expansion And Click & Collect Will Attract Future Customers

The slight decrease in Associated British Foods' consensus price target to £22.07 reflects divergent analyst sentiment driven by uncertainty over UK consumer spending, macroeconomic conditions, and varying expectations for margin and revenue stability. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have taken a more cautious view on the UK consumer, leading to a downgrade and lower price target.
Analysis Article • Sep 12

Associated British Foods' (LON:ABF) Returns Have Hit A Wall

If you're looking for a multi-bagger, there's a few things to keep an eye out for. Amongst other things, we'll want to...
Analysis Article • Aug 13

Associated British Foods (LON:ABF) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly

LSE:ABF 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Associated British Foods's Fair Values from the Community and select...
Analysis Article • Jul 30

At UK£22.22, Is It Time To Put Associated British Foods plc (LON:ABF) On Your Watch List?

Let's talk about the popular Associated British Foods plc ( LON:ABF ). The company's shares saw a double-digit share...
Analysis Article • Jul 15

Investors Don't See Light At End Of Associated British Foods plc's (LON:ABF) Tunnel

When close to half the companies in the United Kingdom have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 16x, you may...
Analysis Article • Jul 01

Should You Be Adding Associated British Foods (LON:ABF) To Your Watchlist Today?

It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story...
Analysis Article • May 23

Associated British Foods (LON:ABF) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of £0.207

The board of Associated British Foods plc ( LON:ABF ) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 4th of July...
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New Narrative • Nov 07

ABF's Decisive Investments And Primark's US Expansion Project Strong Revenue Growth

Primark's expansion and digital initiatives are poised to boost revenue and customer engagement across key markets.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

LSE:ABF - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (GBP Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
9/30/202820,7191,2287702,33315
9/30/202720,0501,1077182,19718
9/30/202619,4721,0455951,98817
2/28/202619,4209501,0592,257N/A
11/30/202519,4409881,0282,244N/A
9/13/202519,4591,0259972,231N/A
6/13/202519,6541,1691,1392,342N/A
3/1/202519,8481,3121,2812,453N/A
12/1/202419,9611,3841,4862,664N/A
9/14/202420,0731,4551,6902,874N/A
6/14/202419,9991,3181,6192,781N/A
3/2/202419,9241,1801,5472,687N/A
12/2/202319,8371,1121,0642,171N/A
9/16/202319,7501,0445811,654N/A
6/16/202319,2138982481,250N/A
3/4/202318,675751-85846N/A
12/4/202217,8367261501,000N/A
9/17/202216,9977003841,153N/A
6/17/202216,2257469851,698N/A
3/16/202215,4537921,5862,242N/A
12/16/202114,6696351,1861,828N/A
9/18/202113,8844787861,413N/A
6/18/202113,2444394981,097N/A
2/27/202112,604400210781N/A
11/27/202013,2714286711,267N/A
9/12/202013,9374551,1311,753N/A
6/12/202014,9385811,0391,707N/A
2/29/202015,9387069471,660N/A
11/30/201915,881792N/A1,585N/A
9/14/201915,824878N/A1,509N/A
6/14/201915,754897N/A1,528N/A
3/2/201915,684915N/A1,547N/A
12/2/201815,629961N/A1,489N/A
9/15/201815,5741,007N/A1,430N/A
6/15/201815,5291,025N/A1,376N/A
3/3/201815,4831,043N/A1,321N/A
12/3/201715,4201,121N/A1,481N/A
9/16/201715,3571,198N/A1,641N/A
6/16/201714,9681,149N/A1,615N/A
3/4/201714,5781,099N/A1,588N/A
12/4/201613,989959N/A1,449N/A
9/17/201613,399818N/A1,310N/A
6/17/201613,034779N/A1,331N/A
2/27/201612,669740N/A1,352N/A
11/27/201512,735634N/A1,264N/A
9/12/201512,800528N/A1,175N/A
6/12/201512,893546N/A1,148N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ABF's forecast earnings growth (8.8% per year) is above the savings rate (3.4%).

Earnings vs Market: ABF's earnings (8.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the UK market (12.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ABF's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ABF's revenue (3.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the UK market (4.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ABF's revenue (3.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ABF's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.1%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 06:35
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/02/28
Annual Earnings2025/09/13

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Associated British Foods plc is covered by 38 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Rebecca McClellanBanco Santander
Alejandro Conde FraisoliBanco Santander
Nicolas Jerome CeronBarclays