Zenith Energy's (LON:ZEN) Earnings Aren't As Good As They Appear

Investors were disappointed with Zenith Energy Ltd.'s (LON:ZEN) recent earnings release. Our analysis found several concerning factors in the earnings report beyond the strong statutory profit number.

View our latest analysis for Zenith Energy

Examining Cashflow Against Zenith Energy's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Over the twelve months to March 2022, Zenith Energy recorded an accrual ratio of 1.00. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CA$13m despite its profit of CA$64.4m, mentioned above. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CA$13m, this year, indicates high risk. However, that's not the end of the story. We must also consider the impact of unusual items on statutory profit (and thus the accrual ratio), as well as note the ramifications of the company issuing new shares.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Zenith Energy.

To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. In fact, Zenith Energy increased the number of shares on issue by 33% over the last twelve months by issuing new shares. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. To talk about net income, without noticing earnings per share, is to be distracted by the big numbers while ignoring the smaller numbers that talk to per share value. Check out Zenith Energy's historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

How Is Dilution Impacting Zenith Energy's Earnings Per Share (EPS)?

Zenith Energy was losing money three years ago. On the bright side, in the last twelve months it grew profit by 1,728%. On the other hand, earnings per share are only up 1,024% over the same period. So you can see that the dilution has had a fairly significant impact on shareholders.

Changes in the share price do tend to reflect changes in earnings per share, in the long run. So it will certainly be a positive for shareholders if Zenith Energy can grow EPS persistently. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Zenith Energy's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CA$71m in the last twelve months. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Zenith Energy had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to March 2022. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

Our Take On Zenith Energy's Profit Performance

In conclusion, Zenith Energy's weak accrual ratio suggested its statutory earnings have been inflated by the unusual items. The dilution means the results are weaker when viewed from a per-share perspective. On reflection, the above-mentioned factors give us the strong impression that Zenith Energy'sunderlying earnings power is not as good as it might seem, based on the statutory profit numbers. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Zenith Energy (of which 2 are a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.