Gulf Keystone Petroleum Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of GKPL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

GKPL (£1.27) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (£2.07)

Is GKPL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GKPL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GKPL (£1.27) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£2.07)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GKPL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GKPL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for GKPL. This is calculated by dividing GKPL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is GKPL's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$362.99m

GKPL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.7x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does GKPL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for GKPL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	1.3x
GENL Genel Energy	3.8x	14.5%	UK£214.0m
DEC Diversified Energy	0.8x	16.6%	UK£446.9m
TLW Tullow Oil	0.3x	-5.7%	UK£364.0m
ENQ EnQuest	0.2x	-9.0%	UK£208.9m
GKPL Gulf Keystone Petroleum	3.2x	42.8%	UK£276.5m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: GKPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.2x) compared to the peer average (1.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GKPL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Oil and Gas Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	6.6%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	6.6%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: GKPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.2x) compared to the UK Oil and Gas industry average (1.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GKPL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GKPL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	3.2x
Fair PS Ratio	0.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: GKPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GKPL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	UK£1.27	UK£1.72 +35.3%	17.2%	UK£1.90	UK£1.21	n/a	4
Sep ’25	UK£1.26	UK£1.72 +35.9%	17.2%	UK£1.90	UK£1.21	n/a	4
Aug ’25	UK£1.31	UK£1.63 +24.6%	19.6%	UK£1.87	UK£1.18	n/a	3
Jul ’25	UK£1.49	UK£1.61 +7.6%	18.5%	UK£1.90	UK£1.20	n/a	3
Jun ’25	UK£1.43	UK£1.53 +6.5%	25.2%	UK£1.88	UK£0.99	n/a	3
May ’25	UK£1.17	UK£1.55 +32.5%	24.7%	UK£1.89	UK£1.01	n/a	3
Apr ’25	UK£1.14	UK£1.79 +57.9%	32.9%	UK£2.66	UK£1.00	n/a	4
Mar ’25	UK£1.00	UK£1.81 +81.5%	32.2%	UK£2.65	UK£1.00	n/a	4
Feb ’25	UK£1.02	UK£1.84 +79.7%	32.0%	UK£2.65	UK£0.99	n/a	4
Jan ’25	UK£1.29	UK£1.87 +45.1%	31.6%	UK£2.66	UK£0.99	n/a	4
Dec ’24	UK£1.28	UK£2.16 +68.6%	16.0%	UK£2.76	UK£1.90	n/a	4
Nov ’24	UK£1.20	UK£2.16 +79.7%	16.0%	UK£2.76	UK£1.90	n/a	4
Oct ’24	UK£1.03	UK£2.29 +122.7%	19.7%	UK£2.97	UK£1.92	UK£1.17	5
Sep ’24	UK£0.92	UK£2.42 +164.0%	26.5%	UK£3.42	UK£1.90	UK£1.26	5
Aug ’24	UK£1.20	UK£2.54 +111.5%	21.4%	UK£3.35	UK£1.89	UK£1.31	5
Jul ’24	UK£1.20	UK£2.57 +113.3%	20.5%	UK£3.36	UK£1.90	UK£1.49	5
Jun ’24	UK£1.36	UK£2.61 +92.0%	21.8%	UK£3.47	UK£1.91	UK£1.43	5
May ’24	UK£1.36	UK£2.65 +95.3%	18.6%	UK£3.42	UK£2.10	UK£1.17	5
Apr ’24	UK£1.46	UK£2.98 +103.9%	14.2%	UK£3.52	UK£2.22	UK£1.14	5
Mar ’24	UK£2.07	UK£3.07 +48.1%	16.3%	UK£3.41	UK£2.20	UK£1.00	4
Feb ’24	UK£2.04	UK£3.07 +50.3%	16.3%	UK£3.41	UK£2.20	UK£1.02	4
Jan ’24	UK£2.00	UK£3.07 +53.5%	16.3%	UK£3.41	UK£2.21	UK£1.29	4
Dec ’23	UK£2.12	UK£3.11 +46.6%	17.1%	UK£3.44	UK£2.19	UK£1.28	4
Nov ’23	UK£2.12	UK£3.33 +57.1%	15.0%	UK£3.64	UK£2.47	UK£1.20	4
Oct ’23	UK£1.99	UK£3.22 +61.9%	14.4%	UK£3.67	UK£2.36	UK£1.03	5

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.