Yellow Cake plc

AIM:YCA Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£1.1b

Yellow Cake Valuation

Is YCA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of YCA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate YCA's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate YCA's fair value for valuation analysis.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for YCA?

Key metric: As YCA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for YCA. This is calculated by dividing YCA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is YCA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.4x
EarningsUS$180.57m
Market CapUS$1.33b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does YCA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for YCA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.6x
HSP Hargreaves Services
15.5x23.4%UK£189.9m
SEPL Seplat Energy
18.2x13.4%UK£1.2b
ITH Ithaca Energy
19.2x-3.9%UK£1.7b
SQZ Serica Energy
5.6x-18.3%UK£506.8m
YCA Yellow Cake
7.4x-79.9%UK£1.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: YCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the peer average (14.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does YCA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Oil and Gas Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ROSN Rosneft Oil
1.5xn/aUS$21.03b
No more companies available in this PE range
YCA 7.4xIndustry Avg. 9.1xNo. of Companies4PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: YCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the UK Oil and Gas industry average (9.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is YCA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

YCA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.4x
Fair PE Ratio3.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: YCA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst YCA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£4.89
UK£7.81
+59.8%
14.0%UK£9.75UK£6.34n/a6
Dec ’25UK£5.45
UK£7.91
+45.1%
13.9%UK£9.91UK£6.44n/a6
Nov ’25UK£5.43
UK£7.70
+42.0%
13.2%UK£9.63UK£6.35n/a6
Oct ’25UK£5.65
UK£7.58
+34.3%
13.7%UK£9.37UK£6.31n/a5
Sep ’25UK£5.26
UK£7.90
+50.1%
17.0%UK£9.55UK£6.35n/a5
Aug ’25UK£5.32
UK£7.93
+49.2%
16.9%UK£9.70UK£6.32n/a5
Jul ’25UK£5.70
UK£8.00
+40.5%
17.7%UK£9.85UK£6.34n/a5
Jun ’25UK£6.38
UK£8.05
+26.1%
16.0%UK£9.70UK£6.46n/a5
May ’25UK£6.70
UK£8.14
+21.4%
15.9%UK£9.81UK£6.53n/a5
Apr ’25UK£6.02
UK£8.03
+33.4%
19.3%UK£9.88UK£6.26n/a5
Mar ’25UK£6.26
UK£8.38
+33.9%
16.9%UK£9.86UK£6.25n/a5
Feb ’25UK£7.30
UK£7.80
+6.8%
16.9%UK£9.82UK£6.22n/a5
Jan ’25UK£6.19
UK£6.43
+3.9%
5.7%UK£6.98UK£5.87n/a5
Dec ’24UK£5.88
UK£6.43
+9.4%
5.7%UK£6.98UK£5.87UK£5.455
Nov ’24UK£5.60
UK£6.60
+17.9%
5.6%UK£7.25UK£6.10UK£5.435
Oct ’24UK£5.60
UK£5.88
+5.0%
5.2%UK£6.33UK£5.49UK£5.655
Sep ’24UK£4.67
UK£5.59
+19.9%
6.0%UK£6.21UK£5.22UK£5.265
Aug ’24UK£4.36
UK£5.54
+27.0%
6.3%UK£6.08UK£5.11UK£5.324
Jul ’24UK£4.09
UK£5.72
+40.0%
6.3%UK£6.29UK£5.31UK£5.704
Jun ’24UK£4.23
UK£5.72
+35.2%
6.3%UK£6.29UK£5.31UK£6.384
May ’24UK£3.76
UK£5.41
+43.9%
3.5%UK£5.54UK£5.08UK£6.704
Apr ’24UK£3.69
UK£5.43
+47.1%
3.4%UK£5.57UK£5.11UK£6.024
Mar ’24UK£4.05
UK£5.67
+39.9%
1.7%UK£5.76UK£5.53UK£6.263
Feb ’24UK£4.14
UK£5.44
+31.3%
2.2%UK£5.62UK£5.29UK£7.304
Jan ’24UK£3.75
UK£5.49
+46.6%
7.5%UK£6.01UK£4.87UK£6.194
Dec ’23UK£3.96
UK£5.60
+41.4%
5.4%UK£5.89UK£5.09UK£5.884

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 02:06
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Yellow Cake plc is covered by 8 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Richard HatchBerenberg
Jason FaircloughBofA Global Research
Samuel CatalanoCanaccord Genuity