What Does The Future Hold For 3i Group plc (LON:III)? These Analysts Have Been Cutting Their Estimates

Today is shaping up negative for 3i Group plc (LON:III) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.

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After the downgrade, the consensus from 3i Group's seven analysts is for revenues of UK£4.8b in 2026, which would reflect a small 6.8% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to rise 9.6% to UK£5.72. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£6.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£5.75 in 2026. Indeed we can see that the consensus opinion has undergone some fundamental changes following the recent consensus updates, with a sizeable cut to revenues and some minor tweaks to earnings numbers.

View our latest analysis for 3i Group

The average price target was steady at UK£43.98 even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.8% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 25% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 1.3% per year. It's pretty clear that 3i Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion from this consensus update is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with analysts holding earnings per share steady, in line with previous estimates. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that 3i Group's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Overall, given the drastic downgrade to this year's forecasts, we'd be feeling a little more wary of 3i Group going forwards.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple 3i Group analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.