Man Group Plc Just Beat Revenue Estimates By 8.3%

Man Group Plc (LON:EMG) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 9.3% to UK£1.65 in the week after its latest interim results. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of US$599m coming in 8.3% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.25, in line with analyst appraisals. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the ten analysts covering Man Group provided consensus estimates of US$1.18b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a not inconsiderable 9.3% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to crater 29% to US$0.12 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.18b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.15 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

See our latest analysis for Man Group

The consensus price target held steady at UK£2.15, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Man Group analyst has a price target of UK£3.23 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£1.61. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Man Group shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 18% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 4.0% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 1.2% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Man Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Man Group. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Man Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Man Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Man Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Man Group has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.