Whitbread plc Just Missed EPS By 27%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, Whitbread plc (LON:WTB) recently reported its yearly numbers. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at UK£1.60, some 27% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at UK£3.0b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Whitbread

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Whitbread's 17 analysts is for revenues of UK£3.07b in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 3.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 32% to UK£2.26. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£3.14b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£2.29 in 2025. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of UK£41.25, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on Whitbread's market value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Whitbread, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at UK£48.00 and the most bearish at UK£30.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Whitbread's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Whitbread's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Whitbread is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at UK£41.25, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Whitbread going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Whitbread that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.