Does Compass Group's (LON:CPG) Statutory Profit Adequately Reflect Its Underlying Profit?

Statistically speaking, it is less risky to invest in profitable companies than in unprofitable ones. That said, the current statutory profit is not always a good guide to a company's underlying profitability. This article will consider whether Compass Group's (LON:CPG) statutory profits are a good guide to its underlying earnings.

It's good to see that over the last twelve months Compass Group made a profit of UK£133.0m on revenue of UK£19.9b. The chart below shows that both revenue and profit have declined over the last three years.

View our latest analysis for Compass Group

Of course, it is only sensible to look beyond the statutory profits and question how well those numbers represent the sustainable earnings power of the business. Therefore, today we will consider the nature of Compass Group's statutory earnings with reference to its dilution of shareholders and the impact of unusual items. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. Compass Group expanded the number of shares on issue by 12% over the last year. Therefore, each share now receives a smaller portion of profit. To celebrate net income while ignoring dilution is like rejoicing because you have a single slice of a larger pizza, but ignoring the fact that the pizza is now cut into many more slices. You can see a chart of Compass Group's EPS by clicking here.

A Look At The Impact Of Compass Group's Dilution on Its Earnings Per Share (EPS).

Compass Group's net profit dropped by 89% per year over the last three years. And even focusing only on the last twelve months, we see profit is down 88%. Sadly, earnings per share fell further, down a full 89% in that time. So you can see that the dilution has had a bit of an impact on shareholders. Therefore, the dilution is having a noteworthy influence on shareholder returns. And so, you can see quite clearly that dilution is influencing shareholder earnings.

If Compass Group's EPS can grow over time then that drastically improves the chances of the share price moving in the same direction. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

On top of the dilution, we should also consider the UK£219m impact of unusual items in the last year, which had the effect of suppressing profit. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect Compass Group to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal.

Our Take On Compass Group's Profit Performance

Compass Group suffered from unusual items which depressed its profit in its last report; if that is not repeated then profit should be higher, all else being equal. But on the other hand, the company issued more shares, so without buying more shares each shareholder will end up with a smaller part of the profit. Considering all the aforementioned, we'd venture that Compass Group's profit result is a pretty good guide to its true profitability, albeit a bit on the conservative side. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Case in point: We've spotted 5 warning signs for Compass Group you should be aware of.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, as a guide to a business. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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