City Pub Group Valuation

Is CPC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CPC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CPC (£1.39) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£1.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CPC is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CPC?

Key metric: As CPC is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for CPC. This is calculated by dividing CPC's market cap by their current revenue.
What is CPC's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.4x
SalesUK£63.32m
Market CapUK£152.81m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does CPC's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for CPC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1x
MARS Marston's
0.3x2.9%UK£231.5m
DPP DP Poland
1.9x17.2%UK£96.6m
LGRS Loungers
0.7x12.4%UK£243.3m
FSTA Fuller Smith & Turner
1.1x5.0%UK£401.0m
CPC City Pub Group
2.4x11.2%UK£152.8m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: CPC is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.4x) compared to the peer average (1.5x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does CPC's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Hospitality Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
EVOK Evoke
0.1x5.9%US$304.34m
TRC Revel Collective
0.06x-3.1%US$10.86m
NGHT Nightcap
0.1xn/aUS$8.62m
TAST Tasty
0.05x-15.3%US$2.74m
CPC 2.4xIndustry Avg. 1.1xNo. of Companies6PS00.61.21.82.43+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: CPC is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.4x) compared to the UK Hospitality industry average (1x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CPC's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CPC PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.4x
Fair PS Ratio1.2x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: CPC is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.2x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CPC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
UK£1.40
0%
5.1%UK£1.45UK£1.30n/a3
Nov ’25n/a
UK£1.40
0%
5.1%UK£1.45UK£1.30n/a3
Oct ’25n/a
UK£1.40
0%
5.1%UK£1.45UK£1.30n/a3
Sep ’25n/a
UK£1.40
0%
5.1%UK£1.45UK£1.30n/a3
Aug ’25n/a
UK£1.40
0%
5.1%UK£1.45UK£1.30n/a3
Jul ’25n/a
UK£1.40
0%
5.1%UK£1.45UK£1.30n/a3
Jun ’25n/a
UK£1.40
0%
5.1%UK£1.45UK£1.30n/a3
May ’25n/a
UK£1.40
0%
5.1%UK£1.45UK£1.30n/a3
Apr ’25n/a
UK£1.40
0%
5.1%UK£1.45UK£1.30n/a3
Mar ’25UK£1.39
UK£1.40
+0.7%
5.1%UK£1.45UK£1.30n/a3
Feb ’25UK£1.39
UK£1.40
+0.7%
5.1%UK£1.45UK£1.30n/a3
Jan ’25UK£1.39
UK£1.40
+0.7%
5.1%UK£1.45UK£1.30n/a3
Dec ’24UK£1.37
UK£1.40
+2.6%
5.1%UK£1.45UK£1.30n/a3
Nov ’24UK£0.89
UK£1.19
+34.2%
9.6%UK£1.30UK£1.05n/a4
Oct ’24UK£0.89
UK£1.19
+34.2%
9.6%UK£1.30UK£1.05n/a4
Aug ’24UK£0.94
UK£1.18
+25.8%
17.2%UK£1.30UK£0.83n/a4
Jul ’24UK£0.93
UK£1.08
+16.4%
15.8%UK£1.30UK£0.83n/a4
Jun ’24UK£0.97
UK£1.06
+8.7%
13.4%UK£1.20UK£0.83n/a4
May ’24UK£0.91
UK£1.06
+16.9%
13.4%UK£1.20UK£0.83n/a4
Apr ’24UK£0.83
UK£1.06
+26.6%
13.4%UK£1.20UK£0.83n/a4
Mar ’24UK£0.84
UK£1.06
+25.1%
13.4%UK£1.20UK£0.83UK£1.394
Feb ’24UK£0.77
UK£1.06
+38.2%
13.4%UK£1.20UK£0.83UK£1.394
Jan ’24UK£0.72
UK£1.11
+52.4%
22.0%UK£1.45UK£0.77UK£1.394
Dec ’23UK£0.71
UK£1.11
+55.6%
22.0%UK£1.45UK£0.77UK£1.374
Nov ’23UK£0.74
UK£1.11
+48.3%
22.0%UK£1.45UK£0.77UK£0.894

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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