HelloFresh Valuation
Is HFGD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of HFGD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: HFGD (€10.64) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€21.59)
Significantly Below Fair Value: HFGD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HFGD?
Key metric: As HFGD is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is HFGD's PS Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PS Ratio | 0.2x |
| Sales | €7.71b |
| Market Cap | €1.71b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.3x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 19.5x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does HFGD's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 0.5x | ||
OCDO Ocado Group | 0.9x | 8.4% | UK£2.5b |
SBRY J Sainsbury | 0.2x | 1.9% | UK£5.9b |
MKS Marks and Spencer Group | 0.6x | 3.0% | UK£7.7b |
TSCO Tesco | 0.3x | 2.1% | UK£23.7b |
HFGD HelloFresh | 0.2x | 3.7% | €1.7b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: HFGD is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the peer average (0.5x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry
How does HFGD's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Retailing Industry?
| 10 Companies | Price / Sales | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: HFGD is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the European Consumer Retailing industry average (0.3x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is HFGD's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 0.2x |
| Fair PS Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate HFGD's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | €10.64 | €10.61 -0.3% | 30.0% | €17.00 | €4.00 | n/a | 15 |
| Nov ’25 | €10.11 | €9.94 -1.7% | 28.2% | €14.31 | €4.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Oct ’25 | €9.05 | €8.19 -9.5% | 29.6% | €14.31 | €4.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Sep ’25 | n/a | €8.15 0% | 28.7% | €14.31 | €4.00 | n/a | 15 |
| Aug ’25 | n/a | €8.42 0% | 35.8% | €16.00 | €4.00 | n/a | 15 |
| Jul ’25 | n/a | €10.03 0% | 62.7% | €31.00 | €5.50 | n/a | 15 |
| Jun ’25 | n/a | €9.89 0% | 62.1% | €31.00 | €5.50 | n/a | 16 |
| May ’25 | n/a | €9.82 0% | 61.0% | €31.00 | €5.50 | n/a | 17 |
| Apr ’25 | €6.64 | €10.42 +56.9% | 56.4% | €31.00 | €5.00 | n/a | 17 |
| Mar ’25 | n/a | €23.05 0% | 41.1% | €45.00 | €11.00 | n/a | 18 |
| Feb ’25 | €13.03 | €23.30 +78.8% | 39.8% | €45.00 | €11.00 | n/a | 18 |
| Jan ’25 | n/a | €24.23 0% | 35.1% | €45.00 | €11.00 | n/a | 18 |
| Dec ’24 | n/a | €24.49 0% | 35.4% | €45.00 | €11.00 | n/a | 17 |
| Nov ’24 | €21.80 | €32.57 +49.4% | 27.7% | €47.00 | €16.00 | €10.11 | 15 |
| Oct ’24 | €28.29 | €33.06 +16.9% | 25.3% | €47.00 | €17.00 | €9.05 | 15 |
| Sep ’24 | €27.71 | €32.11 +15.9% | 25.2% | €47.00 | €17.00 | n/a | 17 |
| Aug ’24 | n/a | €32.11 0% | 25.2% | €47.00 | €17.00 | n/a | 17 |
| Jul ’24 | €22.04 | €32.55 +47.7% | 27.1% | €49.00 | €17.00 | n/a | 17 |
| Jun ’24 | €22.21 | €33.16 +49.3% | 26.4% | €49.00 | €17.00 | n/a | 16 |
| May ’24 | €24.91 | €33.16 +33.1% | 26.4% | €49.00 | €17.00 | n/a | 16 |
| Apr ’24 | €22.03 | €30.96 +40.6% | 32.7% | €49.00 | €17.00 | €6.64 | 14 |
| Mar ’24 | €20.80 | €34.54 +66.0% | 30.1% | €55.00 | €18.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Feb ’24 | €22.26 | €42.30 +90.0% | 40.2% | €81.00 | €18.00 | €13.03 | 15 |
| Jan ’24 | n/a | €44.59 0% | 35.3% | €81.00 | €18.00 | n/a | 16 |
| Dec ’23 | €23.44 | €44.34 +89.2% | 36.1% | €81.00 | €18.00 | n/a | 16 |
| Nov ’23 | €22.45 | €45.97 +104.8% | 37.4% | €81.00 | €18.00 | €21.80 | 16 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.