Stock Analysis

Does Games Workshop Group (LON:GAW) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

LSE:GAW
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Like a puppy chasing its tail, some new investors often chase 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks' without revenue, let alone profit. But as Peter Lynch said in One Up On Wall Street, 'Long shots almost never pay off.'

In the age of tech-stock blue-sky investing, my choice may seem old fashioned; I still prefer profitable companies like Games Workshop Group (LON:GAW). Now, I'm not saying that the stock is necessarily undervalued today; but I can't shake an appreciation for the profitability of the business itself. Conversely, a loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the sweet milk of external capital may run sour.

See our latest analysis for Games Workshop Group

How Fast Is Games Workshop Group Growing?

If you believe that markets are even vaguely efficient, then over the long term you'd expect a company's share price to follow its earnings per share (EPS). It's no surprise, then, that I like to invest in companies with EPS growth. Impressively, Games Workshop Group has grown EPS by 24% per year, compound, in the last three years. As a general rule, we'd say that if a company can keep up that sort of growth, shareholders will be smiling.

I like to see top-line growth as an indication that growth is sustainable, and I look for a high earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margin to point to a competitive moat (though some companies with low margins also have moats). While we note Games Workshop Group's EBIT margins were flat over the last year, revenue grew by a solid 16% to UK£358m. That's a real positive.

The chart below shows how the company's bottom and top lines have progressed over time. Click on the chart to see the exact numbers.

earnings-and-revenue-history
LSE:GAW Earnings and Revenue History June 13th 2022

Of course the knack is to find stocks that have their best days in the future, not in the past. You could base your opinion on past performance, of course, but you may also want to check this interactive graph of professional analyst EPS forecasts for Games Workshop Group.

Are Games Workshop Group Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

Like the kids in the streets standing up for their beliefs, insider share purchases give me reason to believe in a brighter future. This view is based on the possibility that stock purchases signal bullishness on behalf of the buyer. However, small purchases are not always indicative of conviction, and insiders don't always get it right.

Any way you look at it Games Workshop Group shareholders can gain quiet confidence from the fact that insiders shelled out UK£356k to buy stock, over the last year. When you contrast that with the complete lack of sales, it's easy for shareholders to brim with joyful expectancy. It is also worth noting that it was CEO & Executive Director Kevin Rountree who made the biggest single purchase, worth UK£161k, paying UK£117 per share.

I do like that insiders have been buying shares in Games Workshop Group, but there is more evidence of shareholder friendly management. I refer to the very reasonable level of CEO pay. I discovered that the median total compensation for the CEOs of companies like Games Workshop Group with market caps between UK£1.6b and UK£5.2b is about UK£2.5m.

Games Workshop Group offered total compensation worth UK£1.4m to its CEO in the year to . That comes in below the average for similar sized companies, and seems pretty reasonable to me. CEO remuneration levels are not the most important metric for investors, but when the pay is modest, that does support enhanced alignment between the CEO and the ordinary shareholders. It can also be a sign of a culture of integrity, in a broader sense.

Should You Add Games Workshop Group To Your Watchlist?

For growth investors like me, Games Workshop Group's raw rate of earnings growth is a beacon in the night. And that's not the only positive, either. We have both insider buying and reasonable and remuneration to consider. The message I'd take from this quick rundown is that, yes, this stock is worth investigating further. You still need to take note of risks, for example - Games Workshop Group has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.

The good news is that Games Workshop Group is not the only growth stock with insider buying. Here's a list of them... with insider buying in the last three months!

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About LSE:GAW

Games Workshop Group

Engages in the design, manufacture, distribution, and sale of fantasy miniature figures and games in the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and internationally.

Flawless balance sheet with solid track record.