Persimmon Plc

BATS-CHIXE:PSNL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£3.8b

Persimmon Valuation

Is PSNL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PSNL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PSNL (£11.85) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£21.87)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PSNL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PSNL?

Key metric: As PSNL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PSNL. This is calculated by dividing PSNL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PSNL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.8x
EarningsUK£256.40m
Market CapUK£3.79b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PSNL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PSNL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average26x
TW. Taylor Wimpey
17.3x16.9%UK£4.3b
BKG Berkeley Group Holdings
10.4x-5.5%UK£4.0b
BWY Bellway
21.7x21.7%UK£2.8b
BTRW Barratt Redrow
54.7x42.7%UK£6.2b
PSNL Persimmon
14.8x18.5%UK£3.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PSNL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x) compared to the peer average (26x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PSNL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Durables Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies10PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PSNL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x) compared to the European Consumer Durables industry average (13.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PSNL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PSNL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.8x
Fair PE Ratio22.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PSNL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PSNL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£11.85
UK£15.98
+34.9%
14.9%UK£23.00UK£12.75n/a17
Dec ’25UK£12.52
UK£16.51
+31.9%
13.8%UK£23.00UK£14.10n/a17
Nov ’25UK£14.66
UK£16.66
+13.7%
14.0%UK£23.00UK£14.10n/a17
Oct ’25UK£16.47
UK£16.57
+0.6%
13.9%UK£23.00UK£14.10n/a17
Sep ’25UK£16.37
UK£16.28
-0.6%
13.7%UK£23.00UK£14.10n/a17
Aug ’25UK£15.86
UK£15.34
-3.3%
14.7%UK£23.00UK£11.80n/a17
Jul ’25UK£13.71
UK£15.29
+11.5%
14.7%UK£23.00UK£11.80n/a17
Jun ’25UK£14.49
UK£15.04
+3.8%
15.7%UK£23.00UK£11.80n/a16
May ’25UK£12.89
UK£14.93
+15.8%
16.3%UK£23.00UK£11.80n/a16
Apr ’25UK£13.18
UK£14.76
+12.0%
17.3%UK£23.00UK£11.80n/a16
Mar ’25UK£13.84
UK£14.91
+7.7%
17.8%UK£23.00UK£11.20n/a16
Feb ’25UK£14.45
UK£14.74
+2.0%
18.2%UK£23.00UK£11.20n/a16
Jan ’25UK£13.86
UK£12.86
-7.2%
22.3%UK£23.00UK£9.80n/a16
Dec ’24UK£12.80
UK£12.74
-0.5%
22.4%UK£23.00UK£9.80UK£12.5216
Nov ’24UK£10.30
UK£12.94
+25.7%
22.1%UK£23.00UK£9.80UK£14.6617
Oct ’24UK£10.81
UK£12.80
+18.4%
21.6%UK£23.00UK£9.80UK£16.4719
Sep ’24UK£10.59
UK£12.78
+20.7%
22.2%UK£23.00UK£9.80UK£16.3718
Aug ’24UK£11.59
UK£13.49
+16.5%
28.0%UK£23.80UK£9.70UK£15.8618
Jul ’24UK£10.31
UK£13.77
+33.6%
27.5%UK£23.80UK£9.70UK£13.7118
Jun ’24UK£12.28
UK£14.49
+18.0%
25.4%UK£23.80UK£10.59UK£14.4917
May ’24UK£13.12
UK£14.52
+10.7%
25.2%UK£23.80UK£10.59UK£12.8917
Apr ’24UK£12.51
UK£13.87
+10.9%
21.8%UK£23.00UK£10.42UK£13.1815
Mar ’24UK£12.88
UK£14.28
+10.9%
19.7%UK£23.40UK£11.81UK£13.8416
Feb ’24UK£14.14
UK£14.53
+2.8%
19.2%UK£23.40UK£11.81UK£14.4516
Jan ’24UK£12.26
UK£14.51
+18.3%
19.6%UK£23.40UK£11.17UK£13.8616
Dec ’23UK£12.81
UK£14.88
+16.2%
22.1%UK£23.40UK£11.17UK£12.8016

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/27 00:41
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/27 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Persimmon Plc is covered by 43 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Timothy RichmondArden Partners Plc.
Clyde LewisAuerbach Grayson
Emily BiddulphBarclays