Hornby PLC's (LON:HRN) 29% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

The Hornby PLC (LON:HRN) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 29%. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 71%.

Even after such a large jump in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Hornby's P/S ratio of 0.8x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Leisure industry in the United Kingdom is also close to 0.6x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

View our latest analysis for Hornby

What Does Hornby's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

The recent revenue growth at Hornby would have to be considered satisfactory if not spectacular. Perhaps the expectation moving forward is that the revenue growth will track in line with the wider industry for the near term, which has kept the P/S subdued. If not, then at least existing shareholders probably aren't too pessimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Hornby, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Hornby would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 5.7% gain to the company's revenues. The latest three year period has also seen a 19% overall rise in revenue, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has actually done a good job of growing revenue over that time.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 14% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Hornby's P/S is comparable to that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Hornby's P/S

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Hornby's P/S is back within range of the industry median. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Hornby's average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.

Plus, you should also learn about these 4 warning signs we've spotted with Hornby (including 3 which are concerning).

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.