Why Churchill China plc (LON:CHH) Could Be Worth Watching

While Churchill China plc (LON:CHH) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the AIM over the last few months. As a small cap stock, hardly covered by any analysts, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Let’s take a look at Churchill China’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.

Check out our latest analysis for Churchill China

What Is Churchill China Worth?

Churchill China is currently expensive based on my price multiple model, where I look at the company's price-to-earnings ratio in comparison to the industry average. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Churchill China’s ratio of 21.45x is above its peer average of 10.34x, which suggests the stock is trading at a higher price compared to the Consumer Durables industry. In addition to this, it seems like Churchill China’s share price is quite stable, which could mean two things: firstly, it may take the share price a while to fall back down to an attractive buying range, and secondly, there may be less chances to buy low in the future once it reaches that value. This is because the stock is less volatile than the wider market given its low beta.

What does the future of Churchill China look like?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Churchill China's earnings growth are expected to be in the teens in the upcoming years, indicating a solid future ahead. This should lead to robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in CHH’s positive outlook, with shares trading above industry price multiples. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe CHH should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on CHH for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for CHH, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

If you'd like to know more about Churchill China as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Churchill China you should know about.

If you are no longer interested in Churchill China, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.