Experian plc Just Missed EPS By 9.4%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Investors in Experian plc (LON:EXPN) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.6% to close at UK£39.35 following the release of its annual results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$7.5b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 9.4% to hit US$1.27 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Experian from 16 analysts is for revenues of US$8.23b in 2026. If met, it would imply a notable 9.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 24% to US$1.59. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$8.18b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.62 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Experian

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at UK£42.39. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Experian, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at UK£53.50 and the most bearish at UK£30.50 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Experian's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 9.4% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.7% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Experian is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Experian going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Experian you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.