Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Vesuvius plc (LON:VSVS) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Vesuvius
What Is Vesuvius's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2021 Vesuvius had UK£403.8m of debt, an increase on UK£333.8m, over one year. On the flip side, it has UK£169.1m in cash leading to net debt of about UK£234.7m.
How Strong Is Vesuvius' Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Vesuvius had liabilities of UK£523.0m due within a year, and liabilities of UK£508.3m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of UK£169.1m and UK£452.8m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling UK£409.4m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Vesuvius has a market capitalization of UK£945.4m, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Vesuvius's net debt is only 1.2 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 21.3 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. In addition to that, we're happy to report that Vesuvius has boosted its EBIT by 48%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Vesuvius's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Vesuvius produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 58% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
Vesuvius's interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. But truth be told we feel its level of total liabilities does undermine this impression a bit. Taking all this data into account, it seems to us that Vesuvius takes a pretty sensible approach to debt. That means they are taking on a bit more risk, in the hope of boosting shareholder returns. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Vesuvius .
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About LSE:VSVS
Vesuvius
Provides molten metal flow engineering and technology services to steel and foundry casting industries worldwide.
Flawless balance sheet, undervalued and pays a dividend.