What Does Kier Group plc's (LON:KIE) Share Price Indicate?

While Kier Group plc (LON:KIE) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the LSE over the last few months, increasing to UK£1.16 at one point, and dropping to the lows of UK£0.83. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Kier Group's current trading price of UK£0.84 reflective of the actual value of the small-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Kier Group’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

See our latest analysis for Kier Group

Is Kier Group still cheap?

According to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average, the stock price seems to be justfied. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Kier Group’s ratio of 15.39x is trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 17.93x, which means if you buy Kier Group today, you’d be paying a decent price for it. And if you believe Kier Group should be trading in this range, then there isn’t much room for the share price to grow beyond the levels of other industry peers over the long-term. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Kier Group’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What kind of growth will Kier Group generate?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With revenues expected to grow by a double-digit 22% over the next couple of years, the outlook is positive for Kier Group. If the level of expenses is able to be maintained, it looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in KIE’s positive outlook, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at KIE? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on KIE, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the optimistic forecast is encouraging for KIE, which means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Kier Group you should be mindful of and 1 of these shouldn't be ignored.

If you are no longer interested in Kier Group, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.