Ignoring the stock price of a company, what are the underlying trends that tell us a business is past the growth phase? A business that's potentially in decline often shows two trends, a return on capital employed (ROCE) that's declining, and a base of capital employed that's also declining. Trends like this ultimately mean the business is reducing its investments and also earning less on what it has invested. In light of that, from a first glance at Goodwin (LON:GDWN), we've spotted some signs that it could be struggling, so let's investigate.
What is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. The formula for this calculation on Goodwin is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.084 = UK£10m ÷ (UK£210m - UK£86m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to October 2020).
So, Goodwin has an ROCE of 8.4%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Machinery industry average of 12%.
Check out our latest analysis for Goodwin
Historical performance is a great place to start when researching a stock so above you can see the gauge for Goodwin's ROCE against it's prior returns. If you're interested in investigating Goodwin's past further, check out this free graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow.
How Are Returns Trending?
We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at Goodwin. To be more specific, the ROCE was 12% five years ago, but since then it has dropped noticeably. On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady. Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last five years. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Goodwin becoming one if things continue as they have.
While on the subject, we noticed that the ratio of current liabilities to total assets has risen to 41%, which has impacted the ROCE. Without this increase, it's likely that ROCE would be even lower than 8.4%. And with current liabilities at these levels, suppliers or short-term creditors are effectively funding a large part of the business, which can introduce some risks.
Our Take On Goodwin's ROCE
All in all, the lower returns from the same amount of capital employed aren't exactly signs of a compounding machine. Yet despite these poor fundamentals, the stock has gained a huge 128% over the last five years, so investors appear very optimistic. In any case, the current underlying trends don't bode well for long term performance so unless they reverse, we'd start looking elsewhere.
If you'd like to know about the risks facing Goodwin, we've discovered 2 warning signs that you should be aware of.
If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About LSE:GDWN
Goodwin
Provides mechanical and refractory engineering solutions primarily in the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the United States, the Pacific Basin, and internationally.
Excellent balance sheet with proven track record.
