Is BAE Systems plc's (LON:BA.) Recent Stock Performance Tethered To Its Strong Fundamentals?

BAE Systems (LON:BA.) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 12% over the last three months. Given that the market rewards strong financials in the long-term, we wonder if that is the case in this instance. Specifically, we decided to study BAE Systems' ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

Check out our latest analysis for BAE Systems

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for BAE Systems is:

18% = UK£1.9b ÷ UK£11b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. So, this means that for every £1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of £0.18.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

BAE Systems' Earnings Growth And 18% ROE

To start with, BAE Systems' ROE looks acceptable. On comparing with the average industry ROE of 10% the company's ROE looks pretty remarkable. This certainly adds some context to BAE Systems' decent 9.2% net income growth seen over the past five years.

Next, on comparing BAE Systems' net income growth with the industry, we found that the company's reported growth is similar to the industry average growth rate of 10% over the last few years.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is BA. fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is BAE Systems Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

BAE Systems has a three-year median payout ratio of 49%, which implies that it retains the remaining 51% of its profits. This suggests that its dividend is well covered, and given the decent growth seen by the company, it looks like management is reinvesting its earnings efficiently.

Additionally, BAE Systems has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 46% of its profits over the next three years. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 19%.

Conclusion

On the whole, we feel that BAE Systems' performance has been quite good. In particular, it's great to see that the company is investing heavily into its business and along with a high rate of return, that has resulted in a sizeable growth in its earnings. Having said that, the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down, as forecasted in the current analyst estimates. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.