When Should You Buy Ashtead Group plc (LON:AHT)?

Ashtead Group plc (LON:AHT) saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the LSE. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let’s examine Ashtead Group’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.

Check out our latest analysis for Ashtead Group

What Is Ashtead Group Worth?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 20% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Ashtead Group today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is £58.73, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Ashtead Group’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

What kind of growth will Ashtead Group generate?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Ashtead Group's earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 21%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? AHT’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on AHT, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. At Simply Wall St, we found 1 warning sign for Ashtead Group and we think they deserve your attention.

If you are no longer interested in Ashtead Group, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.