Stock Analysis

We Think Ashtead Group (LON:AHT) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

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LSE:AHT
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Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Ashtead Group plc (LON:AHT) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Ashtead Group

What Is Ashtead Group's Net Debt?

As you can see below, Ashtead Group had UK£3.19b of debt at January 2021, down from UK£4.37b a year prior. Net debt is about the same, since the it doesn't have much cash.

debt-equity-history-analysis
LSE:AHT Debt to Equity History June 3rd 2021

A Look At Ashtead Group's Liabilities

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Ashtead Group had liabilities of UK£741.4m due within 12 months and liabilities of UK£5.33b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had UK£14.7m in cash and UK£820.0m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total UK£5.24b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Ashtead Group has a huge market capitalization of UK£23.5b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 1.5 and interest cover of 4.9 times, it seems to us that Ashtead Group is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. So we'd recommend keeping a close eye on the impact financing costs are having on the business. Importantly, Ashtead Group's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 21% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Ashtead Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Ashtead Group produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 68% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

Ashtead Group's EBIT growth rate was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered cast it in a significantly better light. For example its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was refreshing. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Ashtead Group is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Ashtead Group that you should be aware of.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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