Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Ashtead Group plc (LON:AHT) After Its Annual Report

The annual results for Ashtead Group plc (LON:AHT) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$11b and statutory earnings per share of US$3.59. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Ashtead Group

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Ashtead Group's 17 analysts is for revenues of US$11.5b in 2025. This would reflect a modest 5.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 3.3% to US$3.79. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$11.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.91 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at UK£63.22, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Ashtead Group analyst has a price target of UK£82.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£50.50. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Ashtead Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 2.4% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Ashtead Group is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Ashtead Group. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Ashtead Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Ashtead Group is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com