Grafton Group plc

BATS-CHIXE:GFTUL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£1.9b

Grafton Group Valuation

Is GFTUL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GFTUL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GFTUL (£9.54) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£11.4)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GFTUL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GFTUL?

Key metric: As GFTUL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GFTUL. This is calculated by dividing GFTUL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GFTUL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.4x
EarningsUK£131.28m
Market CapUK£1.89b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GFTUL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GFTUL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.5x
RS1 RS Group
20.5x18.4%UK£3.5b
HWDN Howden Joinery Group
17.7x6.0%UK£4.5b
DPLM Diploma
46.7x14.3%UK£6.0b
AT. Ashtead Technology Holdings
17.2x18.2%UK£420.8m
GFTUL Grafton Group
14.4x5.8%UK£1.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GFTUL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the peer average (25.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GFTUL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Trade Distributors Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies10PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GFTUL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the European Trade Distributors industry average (14.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GFTUL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GFTUL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.4x
Fair PE Ratio16.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GFTUL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GFTUL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£9.54
UK£12.11
+26.9%
3.3%UK£12.75UK£11.35n/a10
Nov ’25UK£10.12
UK£12.01
+18.7%
3.0%UK£12.75UK£11.35n/a9
Oct ’25UK£10.33
UK£11.80
+14.3%
2.8%UK£12.30UK£11.15n/a9
Sep ’25UK£10.79
UK£11.73
+8.7%
2.9%UK£12.30UK£11.15n/a9
Aug ’25UK£10.55
UK£11.35
+7.5%
5.7%UK£12.30UK£9.95n/a9
Jul ’25UK£9.24
UK£11.35
+22.8%
5.7%UK£12.30UK£9.95n/a9
Jun ’25UK£9.88
UK£11.53
+16.7%
6.5%UK£12.95UK£10.10n/a10
May ’25UK£9.40
UK£11.51
+22.5%
6.2%UK£12.95UK£10.10n/a10
Apr ’25UK£10.04
UK£11.53
+14.8%
5.9%UK£12.95UK£10.30n/a10
Mar ’25UK£9.84
UK£10.64
+8.1%
9.6%UK£12.95UK£9.40n/a10
Feb ’25UK£9.71
UK£10.56
+8.7%
9.9%UK£12.95UK£9.40n/a9
Jan ’25UK£9.12
UK£10.22
+12.1%
12.7%UK£12.95UK£8.15n/a9
Dec ’24UK£8.23
UK£10.22
+24.3%
12.7%UK£12.95UK£8.15n/a9
Nov ’24UK£7.74
UK£10.61
+37.1%
12.9%UK£13.00UK£8.20UK£10.127
Oct ’24UK£9.09
UK£10.79
+18.8%
10.4%UK£13.00UK£9.10UK£10.337
Sep ’24UK£8.68
UK£10.78
+24.2%
10.5%UK£13.00UK£9.10UK£10.797
Aug ’24UK£8.73
UK£10.69
+22.3%
11.6%UK£13.00UK£8.55UK£10.557
Jul ’24UK£7.87
UK£10.81
+37.5%
9.7%UK£13.00UK£9.45UK£9.247
Jun ’24UK£8.29
UK£10.81
+30.5%
9.7%UK£13.00UK£9.45UK£9.887
May ’24UK£8.69
UK£10.94
+26.0%
8.5%UK£13.00UK£9.90UK£9.408
Apr ’24UK£8.90
UK£10.94
+23.0%
8.5%UK£13.00UK£9.90UK£10.048
Mar ’24UK£9.36
UK£10.69
+14.3%
11.1%UK£13.00UK£9.25UK£9.848
Feb ’24UK£9.40
UK£10.69
+13.7%
11.1%UK£13.00UK£9.25UK£9.718
Jan ’24UK£7.89
UK£10.69
+35.5%
11.1%UK£13.00UK£9.25UK£9.128
Dec ’23UK£7.95
UK£10.69
+34.5%
11.1%UK£13.00UK£9.25UK£8.238
Nov ’23UK£7.02
UK£10.77
+53.4%
9.6%UK£12.80UK£9.30UK£7.747

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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