We can readily understand why investors are attracted to unprofitable companies. For example, biotech and mining exploration companies often lose money for years before finding success with a new treatment or mineral discovery. But while the successes are well known, investors should not ignore the very many unprofitable companies that simply burn through all their cash and collapse.
So should Invinity Energy Systems (LON:IES) shareholders be worried about its cash burn? In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. We'll start by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves in order to calculate its cash runway.
Does Invinity Energy Systems Have A Long Cash Runway?
A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. In December 2021, Invinity Energy Systems had UK£26m in cash, and was debt-free. Importantly, its cash burn was UK£24m over the trailing twelve months. That means it had a cash runway of around 13 months as of December 2021. That's not too bad, but it's fair to say the end of the cash runway is in sight, unless cash burn reduces drastically. You can see how its cash balance has changed over time in the image below.
How Is Invinity Energy Systems' Cash Burn Changing Over Time?
Although Invinity Energy Systems had revenue of UK£3.2m in the last twelve months, its operating revenue was only UK£3.2m in that time period. We don't think that's enough operating revenue for us to understand too much from revenue growth rates, since the company is growing off a low base. So we'll focus on the cash burn, today. The skyrocketing cash burn up 110% year on year certainly tests our nerves. That sort of spending growth rate can't continue for very long before it causes balance sheet weakness, generally speaking. Clearly, however, the crucial factor is whether the company will grow its business going forward. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.
How Hard Would It Be For Invinity Energy Systems To Raise More Cash For Growth?
While Invinity Energy Systems does have a solid cash runway, its cash burn trajectory may have some shareholders thinking ahead to when the company may need to raise more cash. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. One of the main advantages held by publicly listed companies is that they can sell shares to investors to raise cash and fund growth. By comparing a company's annual cash burn to its total market capitalisation, we can estimate roughly how many shares it would have to issue in order to run the company for another year (at the same burn rate).
Since it has a market capitalisation of UK£54m, Invinity Energy Systems' UK£24m in cash burn equates to about 44% of its market value. That's high expenditure relative to the value of the entire company, so if it does have to issue shares to fund more growth, that could end up really hurting shareholders returns (through significant dilution).
How Risky Is Invinity Energy Systems' Cash Burn Situation?
On this analysis of Invinity Energy Systems' cash burn, we think its cash runway was reassuring, while its increasing cash burn has us a bit worried. Summing up, we think the Invinity Energy Systems' cash burn is a risk, based on the factors we mentioned in this article. Taking a deeper dive, we've spotted 7 warning signs for Invinity Energy Systems you should be aware of, and 2 of them are a bit unpleasant.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies insiders are buying, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)
Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.
Find out whether Invinity Energy Systems is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.View the Free Analysis
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Invinity Energy Systems
Invinity Energy Systems plc manufactures and sells vanadium flow batteries (VFB) for energy storage solutions in the United Kingdom, Canada, the United States, Australia, and China.
High growth potential with adequate balance sheet.