NatWest Group plc

BATS-CHIXE:NWGL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£32.0b

NatWest Group Valuation

Is NWGL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NWGL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NWGL (£3.99) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£9.03)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NWGL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NWGL?

Key metric: As NWGL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NWGL. This is calculated by dividing NWGL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NWGL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.2x
EarningsUK£4.46b
Market CapUK£32.04b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NWGL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NWGL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.7x
LLOY Lloyds Banking Group
7.2x4.2%UK£32.2b
BARC Barclays
9x10.8%UK£38.2b
STAN Standard Chartered
7.4x5.2%UK£23.6b
HSBA HSBC Holdings
7.3x-1.4%UK£129.8b
NWGL NatWest Group
7.2x0.3%UK£32.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NWGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the peer average (7.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NWGL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies45PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NWGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NWGL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NWGL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.2x
Fair PE Ratio5.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NWGL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NWGL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£3.99
UK£4.40
+10.5%
9.4%UK£5.35UK£3.60n/a17
Nov ’25UK£3.74
UK£4.19
+12.2%
9.8%UK£4.81UK£3.50n/a17
Oct ’25UK£3.40
UK£3.79
+11.5%
17.5%UK£4.60UK£1.40n/a18
Sep ’25UK£3.46
UK£3.79
+9.5%
17.5%UK£4.60UK£1.40n/a18
Aug ’25UK£3.40
UK£3.67
+8.0%
18.7%UK£4.60UK£1.40n/a18
Jul ’25UK£3.15
UK£3.44
+9.0%
16.4%UK£4.00UK£1.40n/a18
Jun ’25UK£3.16
UK£3.34
+5.9%
17.4%UK£4.00UK£1.40n/a17
May ’25UK£3.04
UK£3.18
+4.5%
18.1%UK£3.90UK£1.40n/a17
Apr ’25UK£2.66
UK£2.90
+9.2%
18.3%UK£3.60UK£1.40n/a16
Mar ’25UK£2.47
UK£2.93
+18.5%
24.8%UK£5.00UK£1.40n/a18
Feb ’25UK£2.20
UK£2.86
+29.9%
25.2%UK£5.00UK£1.40n/a18
Jan ’25UK£2.19
UK£2.88
+31.8%
24.2%UK£5.00UK£1.50n/a18
Dec ’24UK£2.11
UK£2.83
+34.1%
24.5%UK£5.00UK£1.50n/a18
Nov ’24UK£1.76
UK£2.89
+63.8%
25.0%UK£5.00UK£1.50UK£3.7418
Oct ’24UK£2.36
UK£3.36
+42.6%
16.0%UK£5.00UK£2.60UK£3.4019
Sep ’24UK£2.33
UK£3.44
+47.3%
14.5%UK£5.00UK£2.60UK£3.4620
Aug ’24UK£2.39
UK£3.50
+46.4%
16.6%UK£5.00UK£2.60UK£3.4020
Jul ’24UK£2.41
UK£3.57
+48.2%
16.2%UK£4.90UK£2.60UK£3.1520
Jun ’24UK£2.63
UK£3.64
+38.1%
13.0%UK£4.90UK£3.00UK£3.1620
May ’24UK£2.61
UK£3.65
+39.7%
13.0%UK£5.10UK£3.00UK£3.0420
Apr ’24UK£2.64
UK£3.66
+39.0%
12.4%UK£5.10UK£3.00UK£2.6620
Mar ’24UK£2.93
UK£3.67
+25.4%
11.8%UK£4.90UK£3.00UK£2.4721
Feb ’24UK£3.08
UK£3.72
+20.7%
13.4%UK£4.90UK£3.00UK£2.2020
Jan ’24UK£2.66
UK£3.59
+35.1%
14.7%UK£4.60UK£2.80UK£2.1920
Dec ’23UK£2.58
UK£3.53
+36.8%
15.5%UK£4.60UK£2.80UK£2.1120
Nov ’23UK£2.38
UK£3.51
+47.4%
16.2%UK£4.60UK£2.76UK£1.7621

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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