Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A.

BATS-CHIXE:ISPM Stock Report

Market Cap: €64.1b

Intesa Sanpaolo Valuation

Is ISPM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ISPM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ISPM (€3.55) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€5.49)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ISPM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ISPM?

Key metric: As ISPM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ISPM. This is calculated by dividing ISPM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ISPM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.3x
Earnings€8.77b
Market Cap€64.06b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ISPM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ISPM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.7x
BARC Barclays
9x10.8%UK£38.2b
NWG NatWest Group
7.2x0.3%UK£32.0b
LLOY Lloyds Banking Group
7.2x4.2%UK£32.2b
STAN Standard Chartered
7.5x5.2%UK£23.6b
ISPM Intesa Sanpaolo
7.3x0.2%€64.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ISPM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the peer average (7.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ISPM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies45PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ISPM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ISPM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ISPM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.3x
Fair PE Ratio6.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ISPM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ISPM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€3.55
€4.57
+28.5%
7.4%€5.00€3.50n/a20
Nov ’25€3.90
€4.49
+15.0%
6.8%€4.90€3.50n/a20
Oct ’25€3.83
€4.38
+14.2%
7.9%€4.80€3.50n/a21
Sep ’25€3.76
€4.35
+15.6%
7.9%€4.80€3.50n/a21
Aug ’25€3.75
€4.32
+15.2%
7.9%€4.74€3.40n/a21
Jul ’25€3.47
€4.13
+19.2%
7.7%€4.70€3.40n/a20
Jun ’25€3.60
€4.10
+13.9%
7.0%€4.62€3.40n/a20
May ’25€3.55
€3.80
+6.9%
10.7%€4.42€3.00n/a21
Apr ’25€3.36
€3.72
+10.7%
9.6%€4.39€3.00n/a21
Mar ’25€3.00
€3.66
+22.1%
8.4%€4.05€3.00n/a22
Feb ’25€2.85
€3.56
+24.8%
7.9%€3.90€3.00n/a21
Jan ’25n/a
€3.54
0%
9.0%€4.00€3.00n/a21
Dec ’24€2.64
€3.54
+34.1%
9.0%€4.00€3.00n/a21
Nov ’24€2.49
€3.44
+38.0%
9.0%€4.00€2.80€3.9021
Oct ’24€2.47
€3.44
+39.5%
9.3%€4.00€2.80€3.8321
Sep ’24€2.46
€3.34
+36.2%
9.9%€4.00€2.70€3.7623
Aug ’24€2.61
€3.29
+26.2%
9.7%€3.75€2.70€3.7522
Jul ’24€2.41
€3.19
+32.2%
8.5%€3.70€2.70€3.4722
Jun ’24€2.25
€3.16
+40.8%
9.6%€3.70€2.56€3.6022
May ’24€2.38
€3.02
+26.9%
10.5%€3.55€2.40€3.5522
Apr ’24€2.36
€2.99
+26.7%
10.2%€3.55€2.40€3.3622
Mar ’24€2.57
€3.00
+16.5%
10.3%€3.55€2.40€3.0023
Feb ’24€2.46
€2.79
+13.3%
8.7%€3.37€2.40€2.8523
Jan ’24€2.08
€2.73
+31.1%
10.4%€3.37€2.25n/a22
Dec ’23€2.08
€2.72
+30.5%
11.1%€3.37€2.20€2.6422
Nov ’23€1.94
€2.49
+28.3%
17.0%€3.37€1.22€2.4923

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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