Voltalia SA Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Investors in Voltalia SA (EPA:VLTSA) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.0% to close at €21.95 following the release of its full-year results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of €233m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 31% to hit €0.083 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Voltalia

After the latest results, the four analysts covering Voltalia are now predicting revenues of €354.0m in 2021. If met, this would reflect a major 52% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 500% to €0.50. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €322.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.35 in 2021. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Voltalia's future following the latest results, with a very substantial lift in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of €21.55, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Voltalia at €28.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €18.20. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Voltalia's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Voltalia's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 52% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2021 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 17% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 12% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Voltalia to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Voltalia's earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Voltalia analysts - going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Voltalia you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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