Announcement • Nov 14
Capelli SA, Annual General Meeting, Dec 20, 2024 Capelli SA, Annual General Meeting, Dec 20, 2024. Location: 55 avenue rene cassin, lyon France Reported Earnings • Oct 27
Full year 2024 earnings: Revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: Revenue: €67.0m (down 67% from FY 2023). Net loss: €52.8m (loss widened 159% from FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 14%. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.1% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in France are expected to remain flat. New Risk • Sep 16
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended September 2023. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (3.3% operating cash flow to total debt). Market cap is less than US$10m (€6.75m market cap, or US$7.48m). Minor Risks Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported September 2023 fiscal period end). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (9.1% average weekly change). New Risk • Aug 09
New major risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$10m. Market cap: €9.07m (US$9.90m) This is considered a major risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (3.3% operating cash flow to total debt). Market cap is less than US$10m (€9.07m market cap, or US$9.90m). Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.3% average weekly change). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 01
Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 1.2% to €5.14. The fair value is estimated to be €6.71, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 14% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Price Target Changed • Jun 13
Price target decreased by 11% to €9.00 Down from €10.17, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 46% above last closing price of €6.18. Stock is down 26% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.68 next year compared to a net loss per share of €9.31 last year. New Risk • Feb 16
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended March 2023. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.2x net interest cover). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (12% average weekly change). Minor Risks Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported March 2023 fiscal period end). Market cap is less than US$100m (€16.6m market cap, or US$17.9m). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 31
Now 45% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 71% to €6.20. The fair value is estimated to be €4.28, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. New Risk • Oct 06
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of French stocks, typically moving 9.2% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.2x net interest cover). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (9.2% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$10m (€7.58m market cap, or US$8.03m). Buying Opportunity • Sep 05
Now 26% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 47%. The fair value is estimated to be €5.98, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Buying Opportunity • Aug 11
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 49%. The fair value is estimated to be €5.96, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Reported Earnings • Aug 06
Full year 2023 earnings released: €9.31 loss per share (vs €1.09 profit in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: €9.31 loss per share (down from €1.09 profit in FY 2022). Revenue: €201.6m (down 31% from FY 2022). Net loss: €20.4m (down €22.8m from profit in FY 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.7% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in France. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 61 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. New Risk • Aug 03
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of French stocks, typically moving 7.5% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.2x net interest cover). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.5% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (€9.77m market cap, or US$10.7m). Reported Earnings • Jul 04
Full year 2023 earnings released Full year 2023 results: Revenue: €201.7m (down 31% from FY 2022). Net loss: €20.1m (down €22.5m from profit in FY 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 21% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 5.1% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in France. Reported Earnings • Jan 03
First half 2023 earnings released: €1.19 loss per share (vs €0.83 profit in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: €1.19 loss per share (down from €0.83 profit in 1H 2022). Revenue: €107.3m (down 24% from 1H 2022). Net loss: €2.61m (down 244% from profit in 1H 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 21% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.0% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in France. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 25% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 26% per year. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 16
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 44% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from €319.1m to €296.7m. EPS estimate also fell from €3.41 per share to €1.91 per share. Net income forecast to grow 7.4% next year vs 56% decline forecast for Real Estate industry in France. Consensus price target down from €26.50 to €21.97. Share price fell 5.5% to €12.10 over the past week. Board Change • Nov 16
No independent directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 5 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. No independent directors (4 non-independent directors). was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Price Target Changed • Aug 18
Price target decreased to €31.00 Down from €34.00, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 104% above last closing price of €15.20. Stock is down 42% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €5.18 for next year compared to €1.09 last year. Price Target Changed • Jun 24
Price target decreased to €31.00 Down from €35.13, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 83% above last closing price of €16.90. Stock is down 46% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €4.01 for next year compared to €1.95 last year. Price Target Changed • May 25
Price target decreased to €34.00 Down from €36.70, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 71% above last closing price of €19.85. Stock is down 38% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €4.09 for next year compared to €1.95 last year. Board Change • Apr 27
No independent directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 5 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. No independent directors (4 non-independent directors). was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 07
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from €330.8m to €314.0m. EPS estimate also fell from €4.72 per share to €4.09 per share. Net income forecast to grow 153% next year vs 13% decline forecast for Real Estate industry in France. Consensus price target down from €36.70 to €35.13. Share price was steady at €24.70 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Feb 04
Price target decreased to €35.13 Down from €38.13, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 41% above last closing price of €25.00. Stock is down 20% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €4.85 for next year compared to €1.95 last year. Reported Earnings • Dec 30
First half 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First half 2022 results: EPS: €0.83 (down from €0.94 in 1H 2021). Revenue: €141.1m (up 9.4% from 1H 2021). Net income: €1.81m (down 13% from 1H 2021). Profit margin: 1.3% (down from 1.6% in 1H 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 11%. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 11%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 20% compared to a 4.0% decline forecast for the industry in France. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 29% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 7% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 17
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 18% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from €325.9m to €330.8m. EPS estimate increased from €4.00 to €4.72 per share. Net income forecast to grow 103% next year vs 14% decline forecast for Real Estate industry in France. Consensus price target of €36.70 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 3.0% to €22.30 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Dec 30
First half 2021 earnings released: EPS €0.94 The company reported a strong first half result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. First half 2021 results: Revenue: €129.0m (up 55% from 1H 2020). Net income: €2.09m (up 260% from 1H 2020). Profit margin: 1.6% (up from 0.7% in 1H 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 39% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 15% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 18
Analysts update estimates The 2021 consensus earning per share (EPS) estimate was lowered from €2.62 to €2.34. No change was made to the revenue estimate which at the last update was €276.3m. Net income is expected to grow by 9,378% next year compared to 5.5% decline forecast for the Real Estate industry in France. The consensus price target was lowered from €38.33 to €37.33. Share price is up 7.6% to €32.60 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 24
Price target raised to €35.57 Up from €33.23, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. The new target price is 24% above the current share price of €28.60. As of last close, the stock is down 2.1% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 16
New 90-day high: €26.70 The company is up 4.0% from its price of €25.60 on 18 August 2020. The French market is up 9.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, it outperformed the Real Estate industry, which is down 2.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €32.02 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 29
New 90-day low: €21.80 The company is down 18% from its price of €26.50 on 30 July 2020. The French market is down 3.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Real Estate industry, which is down 11% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €32.02 per share.