When Should You Buy Capelli SA (EPA:ALCAP)?

Capelli SA (EPA:ALCAP), might not be a large cap stock, but it led the ENXTPA gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. The recent rally in share prices has nudged the company in the right direction, though it still falls short of its yearly peak. Less-covered, small caps tend to present more of an opportunity for mispricing due to the lack of information available to the public, which can be a good thing. So, could the stock still be trading at a low price relative to its actual value? Let’s take a look at Capelli’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.

Check out our latest analysis for Capelli

Is Capelli Still Cheap?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to our valuation model. It’s trading around 1.01% above our intrinsic value, which means if you buy Capelli today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth €6.24, there’s only an insignificant downside when the price falls to its real value. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Capelli’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

What does the future of Capelli look like?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. In Capelli's case, its revenues over the next few years are expected to grow by 47%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. If expense does not increase by the same rate, or higher, this top line growth should lead to stronger cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in ALCAP’s positive outlook, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on ALCAP, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

If you'd like to know more about Capelli as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Capelli (including 2 which don't sit too well with us).

If you are no longer interested in Capelli, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.