Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Capelli SA (EPA:ALCAP)?

Capelli SA (EPA:ALCAP), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the ENXTPA over the last few months. As a small cap stock, which tends to lack high analyst coverage, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Capelli’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Capelli

What's The Opportunity In Capelli?

According to my valuation model, Capelli seems to be fairly priced at around 13% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Capelli today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth €4.60, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Capelli’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

What does the future of Capelli look like?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With revenues expected to grow by 62% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Capelli. If the level of expenses is able to be maintained, it looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? ALCAP’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuates below the true value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on ALCAP, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Capelli at this point in time. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Capelli (of which 2 are a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.

If you are no longer interested in Capelli, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.