Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Imerys S.A. (EPA:NK) Price Target After Its Latest Report

It's been a good week for Imerys S.A. (EPA:NK) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 8.5% to €30.78. Revenues were in line with expectations, at €3.6b, while statutory losses ballooned to €1.12 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Imerys

Following the latest results, Imerys' four analysts are now forecasting revenues of €3.70b in 2025. This would be a reasonable 2.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Imerys is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of €2.81 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €3.64b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.74 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Imerys' earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target fell 7.6% to €38.80, suggesting the increase in earnings forecasts was not enough to offset other the analysts concerns. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Imerys at €61.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €30.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Imerys' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 2.6% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 1.7% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 4.4% annually for the foreseeable future. Although Imerys' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Imerys following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Imerys going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Imerys , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.