Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Pernod Ricard SA (EPA:RI) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
See our latest analysis for Pernod Ricard
What Is Pernod Ricard's Debt?
As you can see below, Pernod Ricard had €9.45b of debt, at December 2021, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of €2.00b, its net debt is less, at about €7.45b.
A Look At Pernod Ricard's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that Pernod Ricard had liabilities of €5.66b due within a year, and liabilities of €12.4b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of €2.00b and €2.55b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by €13.5b.
This deficit isn't so bad because Pernod Ricard is worth a massive €49.2b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Pernod Ricard's net debt to EBITDA ratio of about 2.5 suggests only moderate use of debt. And its commanding EBIT of 14.7 times its interest expense, implies the debt load is as light as a peacock feather. Importantly, Pernod Ricard grew its EBIT by 37% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Pernod Ricard can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Pernod Ricard produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 58% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
Happily, Pernod Ricard's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. But, on a more sombre note, we are a little concerned by its net debt to EBITDA. When we consider the range of factors above, it looks like Pernod Ricard is pretty sensible with its use of debt. That means they are taking on a bit more risk, in the hope of boosting shareholder returns. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Pernod Ricard that you should be aware of.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About ENXTPA:RI
Fair value second-rate dividend payer.