Earnings Miss: TotalEnergies SE Missed EPS By 24% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

TotalEnergies SE (EPA:TTE) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.4% to €51.33 in the week after its latest second-quarter results. Revenue of US$45b surpassed estimates by 4.1%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 24% below expectations at US$1.17 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the consensus from TotalEnergies' 22 analysts is for revenues of US$180.2b in 2025, which would reflect a perceptible 3.7% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 10% to US$6.38. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$181.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.71 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for TotalEnergies

The consensus price target held steady at €63.26, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on TotalEnergies, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €77.11 and the most bearish at €52.96 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await TotalEnergies shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 7.3% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 8.0% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.2% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - TotalEnergies is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for TotalEnergies. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €63.26, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for TotalEnergies going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - TotalEnergies has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.