Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Accor SA (EPA:AC) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Accor
How Much Debt Does Accor Carry?
As you can see below, Accor had €2.87b of debt at December 2022, down from €3.20b a year prior. However, because it has a cash reserve of €1.64b, its net debt is less, at about €1.23b.
How Healthy Is Accor's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Accor had liabilities of €2.92b due within 12 months, and liabilities of €3.34b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of €1.64b and €1.18b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by €3.44b.
This deficit isn't so bad because Accor is worth €7.42b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Accor has net debt worth 2.1 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 5.2 times the interest expense. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. We also note that Accor improved its EBIT from a last year's loss to a positive €447m. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Accor can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) is backed by free cash flow. Over the last year, Accor recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 98% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.
Our View
When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Accor was the fact that it seems able to convert EBIT to free cash flow confidently. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For instance it seems like it has to struggle a bit to handle its total liabilities. Considering this range of data points, we think Accor is in a good position to manage its debt levels. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. Over time, share prices tend to follow earnings per share, so if you're interested in Accor, you may well want to click here to check an interactive graph of its earnings per share history.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About ENXTPA:AC
Average dividend payer and fair value.